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新冠疫情期间全球电力消耗的变化

Global changes in electricity consumption during COVID-19.

作者信息

Buechler Elizabeth, Powell Siobhan, Sun Tao, Astier Nicolas, Zanocco Chad, Bolorinos Jose, Flora June, Boudet Hilary, Rajagopal Ram

机构信息

Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

出版信息

iScience. 2022 Jan 21;25(1):103568. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2021.103568. Epub 2021 Dec 3.

Abstract

Understanding how the COVID-19 pandemic has altered electricity consumption can provide insights into society's responses to future shocks and other extreme events. We quantify changes in electricity consumption in 58 different countries/regions around the world from January-October 2020 and examine how those changes relate to government restrictions, health outcomes, GDP, mobility metrics, and electricity sector characteristics in different countries. We cluster the timeseries of electricity consumption changes to identify impact groupings that capture systematic differences in timing, depth of initial changes, and recovery rate, revealing substantial heterogeneity. Results show that stricter government restrictions and larger decreases in mobility (particularly retail and recreation) are most tightly linked to decreases in electricity consumption, although these relationships are strongest during the initial phase of the pandemic. We find indications that decreases in electricity consumption relate to pre-pandemic sensitivity to holidays, suggesting a new direction for future research.

摘要

了解新冠疫情如何改变电力消耗,有助于洞察社会对未来冲击及其他极端事件的应对方式。我们对2020年1月至10月全球58个不同国家/地区的电力消耗变化进行了量化,并研究这些变化与不同国家的政府限制措施、健康状况、国内生产总值、出行指标以及电力部门特征之间的关系。我们对电力消耗变化的时间序列进行聚类,以识别出能够体现时间、初始变化深度和恢复率等系统差异的影响分组,结果显示出显著的异质性。结果表明,更严格的政府限制措施以及出行量的大幅下降(尤其是零售和娱乐行业)与电力消耗的减少联系最为紧密,不过这些关系在疫情初期最为明显。我们发现有迹象表明,电力消耗的减少与疫情前对节假日的敏感度有关,这为未来研究指明了新方向。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/67f6/8786648/33b4ef11b83b/fx1.jpg

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