Polarization, partisanship, and pandemic: The relationship between county-level support for Donald Trump and the spread of Covid-19 during the spring and summer of 2020.

OBJECTIVE

Republicans and Democrats have displayed widely divergent beliefs and behaviors related to COVID-19, creating the possibility that geographic areas with more Donald Trump supporters may be more likely to suffer from the disease.

METHODS

I use 2016 election data, COVID-19 case and mortality data, and multilevel linear growth models with state fixed effects to estimate the relationship between county-level support for Donald Trump and the trajectory of cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths per 100,000 county residents between March 17, 2020 and August 31, 2020.

RESULTS

Counties more supportive of Trump had fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths in the early months of the pandemic. However, as the summer moved into July and August, counties less supportive of Trump stopped growth rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths, while counties more supportive of Trump saw a trajectory of increased cases and deaths in July and August. This is likely due to the widely divergent beliefs and behaviors displayed by Republicans and Democrats toward COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

This study underscores the power of polarization and partisanship in the public sphere, even when it comes to a public health issue.