Center for Educational and Social Studies, Mexico City, Mexico.
Office of Strategic Planning and Development Effectiveness, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, District of Columbia, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2021 Dec 16;16(12):e0261277. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261277. eCollection 2021.
This paper analyzes the dynamics of the labor market in Latin America during the COVID-19 pandemic. After a decade of a virtuous circle of growth with the creation of formal jobs, the pandemic has had an considerable impact on the region's labor market, generating an unparalleled increase in the proportion of the inactive population, considerable reductions in informality, and, in contrast, smaller fluctuations in formal jobs. In this context, the formal sector, given its lower flexibility, became a "social safety net" that preserved the stability of employment and wages. Based on the findings presented in this paper, it is projected that, starting in 2021, informality will grow to levels higher than those of the pre-COVID-19 era-with 7.56 million additional informal jobs-as a result of the population returning to the labor market to compensate for the declines in incomes. According to the simulations presented, postponing or forgiving income tax payments and social security contributions conditional on the generation of formal jobs could reduce the growth of informality by 50 to 75 percent. Achieving educational improvements has the potential to reduce it by 50 percent.
本文分析了 COVID-19 大流行期间拉丁美洲劳动力市场的动态。在经历了以创造正规就业机会为特征的十年良性循环增长之后，疫情对该地区的劳动力市场产生了相当大的影响，导致非活跃人口比例空前增加，非正规就业大幅减少，而正规就业的波动则相对较小。在这种情况下，由于灵活性较低，正规部门成为了“社会安全网”，维持了就业和工资的稳定。基于本文提出的研究结果，预计从 2021 年开始，由于人口重返劳动力市场以弥补收入下降，非正规就业将增长到高于 COVID-19 前水平的水平——新增 756 万个非正规就业岗位。根据提出的模拟结果，有条件地推迟或免除所得税和社会保险缴款以创造正规就业机会，可将非正规就业的增长减少 50%至 75%。教育水平的提高也有可能将其减少 50%。
