School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA.
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Nat Commun. 2021 Dec 17;12(1):7331. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-27359-5.
Building community resilience in the face of climate disasters is critical to achieving a sustainable future. Operational approaches to resilience favor systems' agile return to the status quo following a disruption. Here, we show that an overemphasis on recovery without accounting for transformation entrenches 'resilience traps'-risk factors within a community that are predictive of recovery, but inhibit transformation. By quantifying resilience including both recovery and transformation, we identify risk factors which catalyze or inhibit transformation in a case study of community resilience in Florida during Hurricane Michael in 2018. We find that risk factors such as housing tenure, income inequality, and internet access have the capability to trigger transformation. Additionally, we find that 55% of key predictors of recovery are potential resilience traps, including factors related to poverty, ethnicity and mobility. Finally, we discuss maladaptation which could occur as a result of disaster policies which emphasize resilience traps.
面对气候灾害，建立社区韧性对于实现可持续未来至关重要。韧性的运营方法倾向于在受到干扰后系统地快速恢复到原状。在这里，我们表明，过分强调恢复而不考虑转型会使“韧性陷阱”根深蒂固——即社区内存在的一些风险因素可以预测恢复，但会抑制转型。通过量化包括恢复和转型在内的韧性，我们在 2018 年佛罗里达州迈克尔飓风期间的社区韧性案例研究中确定了促进或抑制转型的风险因素。我们发现，住房所有权、收入不平等和互联网接入等风险因素有能力引发转型。此外，我们发现，55%的恢复关键预测因素可能是潜在的韧性陷阱，包括与贫困、种族和流动性相关的因素。最后，我们讨论了由于强调韧性陷阱的灾害政策可能导致的不适应问题。
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