Tang Junqing, Zhao Pengjun, Gong Zhaoya, Zhao Hongbo, Huang Fengjue, Li Jiaying, Chen Zhihe, Yu Ling, Chen Jun
School of Urban Planning and Design, Shenzhen Graduate School, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China.
Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Human-Earth Relations of Ministry of Natural Resources of China, Shenzhen Graduate School, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China.
Natl Sci Rev. 2023 Apr 11;10(8):nwad097. doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwad097. eCollection 2023 Aug.
Large-scale disasters can disproportionately impact different population groups, causing prominent disparity and inequality, especially for the vulnerable and marginalized. Here, we investigate the resilience of human mobility under the disturbance of the unprecedented '720' Zhengzhou flood in China in 2021 using records of 1.32 billion mobile phone signaling generated by 4.35 million people. We find that although pluvial floods can trigger mobility reductions, the overall structural dynamics of mobility networks remain relatively stable. We also find that the low levels of mobility resilience in female, adolescent and older adult groups are mainly due to their insufficient capabilities to maintain business-as-usual travel frequency during the flood. Most importantly, we reveal three types of counter-intuitive, yet widely existing, resilience patterns of human mobility (namely, 'reverse bathtub', 'ever-increasing' and 'ever-decreasing' patterns), and demonstrate a universal mechanism of disaster-avoidance response by further corroborating that those abnormal resilience patterns are not associated with people's gender or age. In view of the common association between travel behaviors and travelers' socio-demographic characteristics, our findings provide a caveat for scholars when disclosing disparities in human travel behaviors during flood-induced emergencies.
大规模灾难可能会对不同人群产生不成比例的影响,造成显著的差异和不平等,尤其是对弱势群体和边缘化群体而言。在此,我们利用435万人产生的13.2亿条手机信令记录,研究了2021年中国郑州前所未有的“720”洪水干扰下人类流动的恢复力。我们发现,尽管暴雨洪水会引发流动减少,但流动网络的整体结构动态仍相对稳定。我们还发现,女性、青少年和老年人群体的流动恢复力较低,主要是因为他们在洪水期间维持正常出行频率的能力不足。最重要的是,我们揭示了三种违反直觉但广泛存在的人类流动恢复力模式(即“倒U型”、“持续增加型”和“持续减少型”模式),并通过进一步证实这些异常恢复力模式与人们的性别或年龄无关,证明了一种普遍的避灾反应机制。鉴于出行行为与旅行者社会人口特征之间的常见关联,我们的研究结果为学者们在揭示洪水引发的紧急情况下人类出行行为差异时提供了一个警示。