Tobías Aurelio, Hashizume Masahiro, Honda Yasushi, Sera Francesco, Ng Chris Fook Sheng, Kim Yoonhee, Roye Dominic, Chung Yeonseung, Dang Tran Ngoc, Kim Ho, Lee Whanhee, Íñiguez Carmen, Vicedo-Cabrera Ana, Abrutzky Rosana, Guo Yuming, Tong Shilu, Coelho Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, Saldiva Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Lavigne Eric, Correa Patricia Matus, Ortega Nicolás Valdés, Kan Haidong, Osorio Samuel, Kyselý Jan, Urban Aleš, Orru Hans, Indermitte Ene, Jaakkola Jouni J K, Ryti Niilo R I, Pascal Mathilde, Huber Veronika, Schneider Alexandra, Katsouyanni Klea, Analitis Antonis, Entezari Alireza, Mayvaneh Fatemeh, Goodman Patrick, Zeka Ariana, Michelozzi Paola, de'Donato Francesca, Alahmad Barrak, Diaz Magali Hurtado, De la Cruz Valencia César, Overcenco Ala, Houthuijs Danny, Ameling Caroline, Rao Shilpa, Di Ruscio Francesco, Carrasco Gabriel, Seposo Xerxes, Nunes Baltazar, Madureira Joana, Holobaca Iulian-Horia, Scovronick Noah, Acquaotta Fiorella, Forsberg Bertil, Åström Christofer, Ragettli Martina S, Guo Yue-Liang Leon, Chen Bing-Yu, Li Shanshan, Colistro Valentina, Zanobetti Antonella, Schwartz Joel, Dung Do Van, Armstrong Ben, Gasparrini Antonio
Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain.
School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki.
Environ Epidemiol. 2021 Sep 24;5(5):e169. doi: 10.1097/EE9.0000000000000169. eCollection 2021 Oct.
Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale.
We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators.
The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 °C decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 °C) to continental (19.3 °C), temperate (21.7 °C), arid (24.5 °C), and tropical (26.5 °C). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 °C for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature, and by 1 °C for a 1 °C rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 °C rise in its SD.
The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation.
最低死亡率温度（MMT）是评估温度与死亡率关联的重要指标，表明对当地气候的长期适应性。在全球范围内，关于MMT地理变异性的证据有限。
我们收集了来自43个国家不同气候条件下658个社区的数据。我们使用带有分布滞后非线性模型的泊松回归估计温度与死亡率的关联，以得出每个社区的MMT。我们通过混合效应荟萃分析研究了不同气候区MMT的变化，并探讨了其与气候和社会经济指标的关联。
MMT的地理分布在不同国家之间差异很大，范围在14.2至31.1°C之间，随纬度降低。对于不同气候区，MMT从高山气候区（13.0°C）增加到大陆性气候区（19.3°C）、温带气候区（21.7°C）、干旱气候区（24.5°C）和热带气候区（26.5°C）。与MMT相对应的MMT百分位数（MMTP）从温带气候区（第79.5百分位数）降至大陆性气候区（第75.4百分位数）、干旱气候区（第68.0百分位数）、热带气候区（第58.5百分位数）和高山气候区（第41.4百分位数）。社区年平均温度每升高1°C，MMT升高0.8°C；社区标准差每升高1°C，MMT升高1°C。而社区年平均温度每升高1°C，MMTP下降0.3个百分位数；社区标准差每升高1°C，MMTP下降1.3个百分位数。
MMT和MMTP的地理分布主要受年平均温度驱动，年平均温度似乎是人群总体适应性的一个有价值指标。我们的结果表明，人群已适应了平均温度，尽管仍有更大的适应空间。
