Center for Indonesia's Strategic Development Initiatives (CISDI), Jakarta, Indonesia.
Jakarta Provincial Health Office, Jakarta, Indonesia.
PLoS One. 2021 Dec 23;16(12):e0261931. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261931. eCollection 2021.
Understanding the actual prevalence of COVID-19 transmission in the community is vital for strategic responses to the pandemic. This study aims to estimate the actual infection of COVID-19 through a seroprevalence survey and to predict infection fatality rate (IFR) in Tanjung Priok, the hardest-hit sub-district by the COVID-19 in Jakarta, Indonesia.
We conducted a venous blood sampling (phlebotomy) to 3,196 individuals in Tanjung Priok between Nov 23, 2020, and Feb 19, 2021 to detect their antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Using an enumerator-administered questionnaire, we collected data on the respondents' demographic characteristics, COVID-19 test history, COVID-19 symptoms in the last 14 days, comorbidities, and protective behaviours during the last month. We employed descriptive analysis to estimate the seroprevalence and IFR.
The prevalence of Antibody against SARS-CoV-2 was 28.52% (95% CI 25.44-31.81%), with the result being higher in females than males (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.02-1.42). By the end of the data collection (February 9, 2021), the cumulative cases of COVID-19 in Tanjung Priok were reported to be experienced by 9,861 people (2.4%). Those aged 45-65 were more likely to be seropositive than 15-19 years old (OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.05-1.92). Nearly one third (31%) of the subjects who developed at least one COVID-19 symptom in the last 14 days of the data collection were seropositive. The estimated IFR was 0.08% (95% CI 0.07-0.09), with a higher figure recorded in males (0.09; 95% CI 0.08-0.10) than females (0.07; 95% CI 0.06-0.08), and oldest age group (45-65) (0.21; 95% CI 0.18-0.23) than other younger groups.
An under-reporting issue was found between the estimated COVID-19 seroprevalence and the reported cumulative cases in Tanjung Priok. More efforts are required to amplify epidemiological surveillance by the provincial and local governments.
了解社区中 COVID-19 传播的实际流行情况对于大流行的战略应对至关重要。本研究旨在通过血清流行率调查估计 COVID-19 的实际感染情况,并预测印度尼西亚雅加达坦江普里奥克(Tanjung Priok)受 COVID-19 影响最严重的分区的感染病死率(IFR)。
我们于 2020 年 11 月 23 日至 2021 年 2 月 19 日期间对坦江普里奥克的 3196 人进行了静脉血样采集(采血),以检测他们对 SARS-CoV-2 的抗体。我们使用由计数员管理的问卷收集了受访者的人口统计学特征、COVID-19 检测史、过去 14 天的 COVID-19 症状、合并症以及过去一个月的保护行为的数据。我们采用描述性分析来估计血清流行率和 IFR。
抗 SARS-CoV-2 抗体的流行率为 28.52%(95%CI 25.44-31.81%),女性的结果高于男性(OR 1.20;95%CI 1.02-1.42)。在数据收集结束时(2021 年 2 月 9 日),坦江普里奥克报告的 COVID-19 累计病例为 9861 例(2.4%)。与 15-19 岁的人相比,45-65 岁的人更有可能呈血清阳性(OR 1.42;95%CI 1.05-1.92)。近三分之一(31%)在数据收集的最后 14 天内至少出现过一种 COVID-19 症状的受试者呈血清阳性。估计的 IFR 为 0.08%(95%CI 0.07-0.09),男性(0.09;95%CI 0.08-0.10)高于女性(0.07;95%CI 0.06-0.08),年龄最大的组(45-65 岁)(0.21;95%CI 0.18-0.23)高于其他年轻组。
坦江普里奥克估计的 COVID-19 血清流行率与报告的累计病例之间存在漏报问题。省级和地方政府需要加大力度加强流行病学监测。