School of Economics and Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Dec 16;18(24):13284. doi: 10.3390/ijerph182413284.
The energy transition and carbon emission efficiency are important thrust and target functions, respectively, for achieving carbon neutrality in the future. Using a sample of 30 Chinese provinces from 2006 to 2018, we measured their carbon efficiency using the game cross-efficiency data envelopment analysis (DEA). Then, a random forest regression model was used to explore the impact of renewable energy development on regional carbon emission efficiency. The results are as follows. First, China's carbon emission efficiency in the southeast coastal area was better than that in the northwest area. Second, renewable energy development first inhibited and then promoted carbon emission efficiency, and there existed a reasonable range. Third, through a regional heterogeneity analysis, the trend of the influence of renewable energy development on carbon emission efficiency was found to not be significantly different in eastern, central, and western China, but there was a certain gap in the reasonable range. Our study not only helps to promote the study of renewable energy development and the carbon neutral target, but also provides an important reference for Chinese policy-makers to design a reasonable carbon emissions reduction path.
能源转型和碳排放效率分别是未来实现碳中和的重要推力和目标函数。利用 2006 年至 2018 年中国 30 个省份的样本数据，我们采用交叉效率数据包络分析（DEA）方法对其碳排放效率进行了测度。然后，我们利用随机森林回归模型探讨了可再生能源发展对区域碳排放效率的影响。结果表明：第一，中国东南沿海地区的碳排放效率要好于西北内陆地区。第二，可再生能源发展对碳排放效率的影响先抑制后促进，存在合理区间。第三，通过区域异质性分析，发现可再生能源发展对碳排放效率的影响趋势在东部、中部和西部地区没有显著差异，但在合理区间存在一定差距。本研究不仅有助于推动可再生能源发展和碳中和目标的研究，也为中国决策者制定合理的碳排放减排路径提供了重要参考。
