Singh Anurag, Arquam Md
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, National Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi 110040, India.
Physica A. 2022 Apr 15;592:126774. doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.126774. Epub 2021 Dec 24.
A novel coronavirus has resulted in an outbreak of viral pneumonia in China. Person-to-person transmission has been demonstrated, but, to our knowledge, the spreading of novel coronavirus takes place due to an asymptomatic carrier. Most models are not considering testing and underlying network topology that shows the spreading pattern. By failing to integrate testing into the epidemiological model, models missed a vital opportunity to better understand the role of asymptomatic infection in transmission. In this work, we propose a model considering testing as well as asymptomatic infection considering underlying network topology. We extract the transmission parameters from the data set of COVID-19 of India and apply those parameters in our proposed model. The simulation results support our theoretical derivations, which show the impact of testing and asymptomatic carrier in infection spreading.
一种新型冠状病毒已在中国引发病毒性肺炎疫情。人传人现象已得到证实，但据我们所知，新型冠状病毒的传播是由无症状携带者导致的。大多数模型并未考虑检测以及显示传播模式的基础网络拓扑结构。由于未能将检测纳入流行病学模型，这些模型错失了一个更好地理解无症状感染在传播中作用的重要机会。在这项工作中，我们提出了一个既考虑检测又考虑基础网络拓扑结构的无症状感染模型。我们从印度新冠肺炎数据集提取传播参数，并将这些参数应用于我们提出的模型。模拟结果支持了我们的理论推导，这些推导展示了检测和无症状携带者对感染传播的影响。
