State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, China.
Institute of Ecology, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, China.
Conserv Biol. 2022 Aug;36(4):e13887. doi: 10.1111/cobi.13887. Epub 2022 Mar 31.
Previous assessments of the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) focused primarily on changes in human pressure over time and did not consider the different human-pressure baselines of PAs, thereby potentially over- or underestimating PA effectiveness. We developed a framework that considers both human-pressure baseline and change in human pressure over time and assessed the effectiveness of 338 PAs in China from 2010 to 2020. The initial state of human pressure on PAs was taken as the baseline, and changes in human pressure index (HPI) were further analyzed under different baselines. We used the random forest models to identify the management measures that most improved effectiveness in resisting human pressure for the PAs with different baselines. Finally, the relationships between the changes in the HPI and the changes in natural ecosystems in PAs were analyzed with different baselines. Of PAs with low HPI baselines, medium HPI baselines, and high HPI baselines, 76.92% (n=150), 11.11% (n=12), and 22.86% (n=8) , respectively, showed positive effects in resisting human pressure. Overall, ignoring human-pressure baselines somewhat underestimated the positive effects of PAs, especially for those with low initial human pressure. For PAs with different initial human pressures, different management measures should be taken to improve effectiveness and reduce threats to natural ecosystems. We believe our framework is useful for assessing the effectiveness of PAs globally, and we recommend it be included in the Convention on Biological Diversity Post-2020 Strategy.
先前对保护区（PA）有效性的评估主要集中在随时间变化的人类压力上，而没有考虑 PA 的不同人类压力基线，从而可能高估或低估了 PA 的有效性。我们开发了一个框架，该框架同时考虑了人类压力基线和随时间变化的人类压力，并评估了 2010 年至 2020 年期间中国 338 个 PA 的有效性。将 PA 上的初始人类压力状态作为基线，并进一步分析了在不同基线下人类压力指数（HPI）的变化。我们使用随机森林模型来确定在不同基线下对 PA 最能提高抵抗人类压力效果的管理措施。最后，分析了在不同基线下 HPI 的变化与 PA 中自然生态系统变化之间的关系。在 HPI 基线较低、HPI 基线中等和 HPI 基线较高的 PA 中，分别有 76.92%（n=150）、11.11%（n=12）和 22.86%（n=8）显示出抵抗人类压力的积极效果。总体而言，忽略人类压力基线在一定程度上低估了 PA 的积极效果，尤其是对于那些初始人类压力较低的 PA。对于具有不同初始人类压力的 PA，应采取不同的管理措施来提高有效性并减少对自然生态系统的威胁。我们相信我们的框架对评估全球 PA 的有效性是有用的，我们建议将其纳入《生物多样性公约》2020 年后战略。
