Cunze Sarah, Glock Gustav, Klimpel Sven
Institute of Ecology, Evolution and Diversity, Johann Wolfgang Goethe Universität Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt am Main, Hesse, Germany.
Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberg Nature Research Society, Frankfurt am Main, Hesse, Germany.
PeerJ. 2021 Dec 13;9:e12422. doi: 10.7717/peerj.12422. eCollection 2021.
In the face of ongoing climate warming, vector-borne diseases are expected to increase in Europe, including tick-borne diseases (TBD). The most abundant tick-borne diseases in Germany are Tick-Borne Encephalitis (TBE) and Lyme Borreliosis (LB), with as the main vector.
In this study, we display and compare the spatial and temporal patterns of reported cases of human TBE and LB in relation to some associated factors. The comparison may help with the interpretation of observed spatial and temporal patterns.
The spatial patterns of reported TBE cases show a clear and consistent pattern over the years, with many cases in the south and only few and isolated cases in the north of Germany. The identification of spatial patterns of LB disease cases is more difficult due to the different reporting practices in the individual federal states. Temporal patterns strongly fluctuate between years, and are relatively synchronized between both diseases, suggesting common driving factors. Based on our results we found no evidence that weather conditions affect the prevalence of both diseases. Both diseases show a gender bias with LB bing more commonly diagnosed in females, contrary to TBE being more commonly diagnosed in males.
For a further investigation of of the underlying driving factors and their interrelations, longer time series as well as standardised reporting and surveillance system would be required.
面对持续的气候变暖，预计欧洲包括蜱传疾病（TBD）在内的媒介传播疾病将会增加。德国最常见的蜱传疾病是蜱传脑炎（TBE）和莱姆病（LB）， 为主要传播媒介。
在本研究中，我们展示并比较了人类TBE和LB报告病例的时空模式以及一些相关因素。这种比较可能有助于解释观察到的时空模式。
多年来报告的TBE病例的空间模式呈现出清晰且一致的格局，德国南部病例众多，而北部病例稀少且分散。由于各联邦州报告做法不同，确定LB病病例的空间模式更为困难。时间模式在各年份间波动很大，且两种疾病相对同步波动，这表明存在共同的驱动因素。根据我们的结果，我们没有发现天气状况影响这两种疾病患病率的证据。两种疾病都存在性别偏差，LB病在女性中更常被诊断出来，而TBE病在男性中更常被诊断出来。
为了进一步调查潜在的驱动因素及其相互关系，需要更长的时间序列以及标准化的报告和监测系统。
