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新冠疫情受害者中的随机性

Stochasticity among Victims of COVID-19 Pandemic.

作者信息

Shanmugam Ramalingam, Ledlow Gerald, Singh Karan P

机构信息

School of Health Administration, Texas State University, San Marcos, TX, 78666, USA.

Department of Healthcare Policy, Economics and Management, School of Community and Rural Health, The University of Texas at Tyler Health Science Center, Tyler, TX, 11937, USA.

出版信息

J Multidiscip Healthc. 2022 Jan 4;15:1-10. doi: 10.2147/JMDH.S322637. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

This article provides a thorough explanation of methods and theoretical concepts to detect infectivity of COVID-19. The concept of heterogeneity is discussed and its impacts on COVID-19 pandemics are explored. Observable heterogeneity is distinguished from non-observable heterogeneity. The data support the concepts of heterogeneity and the methods to extract and interpret the data evidence for the conclusions in this paper. Heterogeneity among the vulnerable to COVID-19 is a significant factor in the contagion of COVID-19, as demonstrated with incidence rates using data of a Diamond Princess cruise ship. Given the nature of the pandemic, its heterogeneity with different social norms, pre- and post-voyage quick testing procedures ought to become the new standard for cruise ship passengers and crew. With quick testing, identification of those infected and thus, not allowing to embark on a cruise or quarantine those disembarking, and other mitigation strategies, the popular cruise adventure could become norm for safe voyage. The novel method used in this article adds valuable insight in the modeling of disease and specifically, the COVID-19 virus.

摘要

本文对检测新冠病毒传染性的方法和理论概念进行了全面解释。讨论了异质性的概念,并探讨了其对新冠疫情的影响。可观察到的异质性与不可观察到的异质性得以区分。数据支持了异质性概念以及本文用于提取和解释数据证据以得出结论的方法。正如使用钻石公主号游轮数据得出的发病率所表明的那样,新冠病毒易感人群中的异质性是新冠病毒传播的一个重要因素。鉴于疫情的性质及其与不同社会规范的异质性,航行前和航行后的快速检测程序应成为游轮乘客和船员的新标准。通过快速检测,识别出感染者,从而不允许其登上游轮或对下船者进行隔离,以及采取其他缓解策略,受欢迎的游轮冒险之旅可以成为安全航行的常态。本文中使用的新方法为疾病建模,特别是新冠病毒建模提供了有价值的见解。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/687e/8742617/142bbdf65135/JMDH-15-1-g0001.jpg

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