Mizumoto Kenji, Chowell Gerardo
Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University Yoshida-Nakaadachi-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan.
Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan.
Infect Dis Model. 2020 Feb 29;5:264-270. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.003. eCollection 2020.
An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January-February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ~11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1-7). Our findings suggest that decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship.
2020年1月至2月期间，公主邮轮上爆发了新冠疫情。利用数学模型和描述乘客及船员中疫情发展轨迹的时间序列发病数据，我们刻画了疫情期间传播潜力是如何变化的。我们对封闭环境中平均繁殖数的估计高达约11，高于在中国和新加坡社区层面传播动态报告的平均估计值（大致范围：1.1 - 7）。我们的研究结果表明，与日本政府实施强化检疫控制后的早期阶段相比，（传播潜力）大幅下降。最新的（传播潜力）估计值大多低于疫情阈值，这表明钻石公主号邮轮上不太可能发生新冠病毒的二次爆发。
