Stockholm Environment Institute, Linnégatan 87D, Box 24218, 104 51 Stockholm, Sweden.
Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Box 465, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden.
Environ Sci Technol. 2022 Feb 1;56(3):1510-1521. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.1c04158. Epub 2022 Jan 18.
We submit that the safe operating space of the planetary boundary of novel entities is exceeded since annual production and releases are increasing at a pace that outstrips the global capacity for assessment and monitoring. The novel entities boundary in the planetary boundaries framework refers to entities that are novel in a geological sense and that could have large-scale impacts that threaten the integrity of Earth system processes. We review the scientific literature relevant to quantifying the boundary for novel entities and highlight plastic pollution as a particular aspect of high concern. An impact pathway from production of novel entities to impacts on Earth system processes is presented. We define and apply three criteria for assessment of the suitability of control variables for the boundary: feasibility, relevance, and comprehensiveness. We propose several complementary control variables to capture the complexity of this boundary, while acknowledging major data limitations. We conclude that humanity is currently operating outside the planetary boundary based on the weight-of-evidence for several of these control variables. The increasing rate of production and releases of larger volumes and higher numbers of novel entities with diverse risk potentials exceed societies' ability to conduct safety related assessments and monitoring. We recommend taking urgent action to reduce the harm associated with exceeding the boundary by reducing the production and releases of novel entities, noting that even so, the persistence of many novel entities and/or their associated effects will continue to pose a threat.
我们认为,新型实体的安全运行空间已经超过了行星边界,因为其年度产量和释放量的增长速度超过了全球评估和监测的能力。行星边界框架中的新型实体边界是指在地质意义上是新型的实体,它们可能产生大规模的影响,威胁到地球系统过程的完整性。我们回顾了与量化新型实体边界相关的科学文献,并强调了塑料污染是一个特别令人关注的方面。提出了从新型实体的生产到对地球系统过程的影响的影响途径。我们定义并应用了评估边界控制变量适用性的三个标准:可行性、相关性和全面性。我们提出了一些补充控制变量来捕捉这一边界的复杂性,同时承认存在主要的数据限制。我们得出的结论是,基于这些控制变量中的几个证据权重,人类目前正在超越行星边界。新型实体的产量和释放量不断增加,体积和数量更大,风险潜力也更多样化,这超过了社会进行安全相关评估和监测的能力。我们建议采取紧急行动,通过减少新型实体的生产和释放来减少与超越边界相关的危害,同时注意到,即使如此,许多新型实体及其相关影响仍将继续构成威胁。