Antonarakis Alexander S, Pacca Lucia, Antoniades Andreas
School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, BN1 9QJ UK.
Center for Vulnerable Populations, University of California, San Francisco, USA.
Sustain Sci. 2022;17(3):1037-1057. doi: 10.1007/s11625-021-01086-8. Epub 2022 Jan 29.
Managing our transition to sustainability requires a solid understanding of how conditions of financial crisis affect our natural environment. Yet, there has been little focus on the nature of the relationship between financial crises and environmental sustainability, especially in relation to forests and deforestation. This study addressed this gap by providing novel evidence on the impact of financial crises on deforestation. A panel data approach is used looking at Global Forest Watch deforestation data from > 150 countries in > 100 crises in the twenty-first century. This includes an analysis of crises effects on principle drivers of deforestation; timber and agricultural commodities-palm oil, soybean, coffee, cattle, and cocoa. At a global level, financial crises are associated with a reduction in deforestation rates (- 36 p.p) and deforestation drivers; roundwood (- 6.7 p.p.), cattle (- 2.3 p.p.) and cocoa production (- 8.3 p.p.). Regionally, deforestation rates in Asia, Africa, and Europe decreased by - 83, - 43, and 22 p.p, respectively. Drivers behind these effects may be different, from palm oil (- 1.3 p.p.) and cocoa (- 10.5 p.p.) reductions in Africa, to a combination of timber (- 9.5 p.p) and palm oil in Asia. Moreover, financial crises have a larger effect on deforestation in low-income, than upper middle- and high-income countries (- 51 vs - 39 and - 18 p.p. respectively). Using another main dataset on yearly forest cover-the ESA-Climate Change Initiative-a picture arises showing financial crises leading to small global decreases in forest cover (- 0.1 p.p.) with a small agricultural cover increase (0.1 p.p). Our findings point to financial crises as important moments for global deforestation dynamics. Yet, to consolidate benefits on decreasing deforestation, governments need to enhance their sustainable forest management during crisis periods rather than let it slip down national agendas. Finally, to achieve the SDGs related to forests, better global forest cover datasets are needed, with better forest loss/gain data, disturbance history, and understanding of mosaicked landscape dynamics within a satellite pixel.
管理我们向可持续发展的转型需要深入了解金融危机状况如何影响我们的自然环境。然而，人们很少关注金融危机与环境可持续性之间关系的本质，尤其是与森林和森林砍伐相关的关系。本研究通过提供关于金融危机对森林砍伐影响的新证据来填补这一空白。采用面板数据方法，研究了21世纪100多次危机中150多个国家的全球森林观察森林砍伐数据。这包括分析危机对森林砍伐主要驱动因素的影响；木材和农产品——棕榈油、大豆、咖啡、牛和可可。在全球层面，金融危机与森林砍伐率的下降（-36个百分点）以及森林砍伐驱动因素的减少相关；圆木（-6.7个百分点）、牛（-2.3个百分点）和可可产量（-8.3个百分点）。在区域层面，亚洲、非洲和欧洲的森林砍伐率分别下降了-83、-43和22个百分点。这些影响背后的驱动因素可能不同，从非洲棕榈油（-1.3个百分点）和可可（-10.5个百分点）的减少，到亚洲木材（-9.5个百分点）和棕榈油的综合减少。此外，金融危机对低收入国家森林砍伐的影响比对中高收入国家更大（分别为-51个百分点、-39个百分点和-18个百分点）。使用另一个关于年度森林覆盖的主要数据集——欧洲航天局气候变化倡议——呈现出一幅画面，显示金融危机导致全球森林覆盖略有下降（-0.1个百分点），农业覆盖略有增加（0.1个百分点）。我们的研究结果表明，金融危机是全球森林砍伐动态的重要时刻。然而，为了巩固减少森林砍伐的益处，各国政府需要在危机期间加强其可持续森林管理，而不是让它从国家议程中滑落。最后，为了实现与森林相关的可持续发展目标，需要更好的全球森林覆盖数据集，以及更好的森林损失/增加数据、干扰历史，以及对卫星像素内镶嵌景观动态的理解。
