Sajid Muhammad Jawad, Ali Ghaffar, Santibanez Gonzalez Ernesto D R
School of Engineering Management, Xuzhou University of Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, China.
College of Management, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, 518060, China.
J Clean Prod. 2022 Mar 15;340:130716. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.130716. Epub 2022 Feb 3.
The environmental cost of disaster-related emergency supplies is significant. However, little research has been conducted on the estimation of emergency-supply transportation-related carbon emissions. This study created an "emergency supply emission estimation methodology" (ESEEM). The CO emissions from the global air dispatch of COVID-19 vaccines were estimated using two hypothetical scenarios of one dose per capita and additional doses secured. The robustness of the model was tested with the Monte Carlo Simulation method (MCM) based one-sample -test. The model was validated using the "Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM)" and GUM's MCM approaches. The results showed that to dispatch at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine to 7.8 billion people, nearly 8000 Boeing 747 flights will be needed, releasing approximately 8.1 ± 0.30 metric kilotons (kt) of CO. As countries secure additional doses, these figures will increase to 14,912 flights and about 15 ± 0.48 kt of CO. According to the variance-based sensitivity analysis, the total number of doses (population), technology, and wealth play a significant role in determining CO emissions across nations. Thus, wealthy nations' long-term population reduction efforts, technological advancements, and mitigation efforts can benefit the environment as a whole and the CO burdens associated with current COVID-19 and any future disasters' emergency-supply transportation.
与灾害相关的应急物资所产生的环境成本十分巨大。然而，针对应急物资运输相关碳排放的估算研究却很少。本研究创建了一种“应急物资排放估算方法”（ESEEM）。利用人均一剂和额外储备剂量这两种假设情景，估算了新冠疫苗全球航空运输的碳排放。基于单样本检验，采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法（MCM）对模型的稳健性进行了测试。使用《测量不确定度表示指南》（GUM）及其MCM方法对模型进行了验证。结果表明，要向78亿人至少分发一剂新冠疫苗，将需要近8000架波音747航班，排放约8.1±0.30公吨二氧化碳。随着各国储备额外剂量，这些数字将增至14912架航班和约15±0.48公吨二氧化碳。根据基于方差的敏感性分析，总剂量（人口）、技术和财富在决定各国碳排放方面起着重要作用。因此，富裕国家长期的人口减少努力、技术进步和减排努力，能够使整个环境以及与当前新冠疫情和未来任何灾害应急物资运输相关的碳排放负担受益。
