Covitt Beth A, Anderson Charles W
spectrUM Discovery Area, University of Montana, Missoula, MT USA.
Department of Teacher Education, College of Education, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI USA.
Sci Educ (Dordr). 2022;31(5):1155-1180. doi: 10.1007/s11191-022-00322-6. Epub 2022 Feb 4.
This article focuses on ways in which scientists recognize and analyze limits in their studies and conclusions. We distinguish uncertainty from (un)trustworthiness-ways in which scientific reports can be affected by conscious deception or unconscious bias. Scientific journal articles typically include analyses and quantifications of uncertainty in both quantitative forms (e.g., error bars, ranges of predictions, statistical tests) and qualitative forms (e.g., alternate hypotheses, limitations of studies, questions for future research). These analyses of uncertainty are often incorporated into reports from scientific organizations and responsible scientific journalism. We argue that a critical goal of science education should be to help students understand science may be employed as an uncertain and limited, yet still useful tool for informing decisions about socioscientific problems. When members of the public are insufficiently prepared to understand analyses and quantifications of uncertainty, the consequences are manifest in public skepticism about science and inadequately informed decision-making about socioscientific issues. We describe current design work in science education that includes a worthwhile emphasis on helping students to recognize and leverage uncertainty in their own data and models. Additional important work can enable students to develop proficiency in seeking out and understanding analyses of continuing uncertainty in media accounts of scientific conclusions and predictions.
本文聚焦于科学家在其研究与结论中识别和分析局限性的方式。我们将不确定性与（不）可信度区分开来——科学报告可能受到有意识欺骗或无意识偏见影响的方式。科学期刊文章通常包括以定量形式（如误差线、预测范围、统计检验）和定性形式（如替代假设、研究局限性、未来研究问题）对不确定性的分析和量化。这些对不确定性的分析常常被纳入科学组织的报告以及负责任的科学新闻报道中。我们认为科学教育的一个关键目标应该是帮助学生理解科学可作为一种不确定且有限但仍有用的工具，用于为有关社会科学问题的决策提供信息。当公众没有充分准备好理解对不确定性的分析和量化时，后果表现为公众对科学的怀疑以及对社会科学问题的决策缺乏充分信息依据。我们描述了当前科学教育中的设计工作，其中包括值得强调的帮助学生识别并利用自身数据和模型中的不确定性。另外的重要工作可以使学生在寻找和理解媒体对科学结论与预测报道中持续存在的不确定性分析方面提高熟练度。
