Rosati Dora P, Woolhouse Matthew H, Bolker Benjamin M, Earn David J D
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8S 4K1.
School of the Arts, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8S 4K1.
Proc Math Phys Eng Sci. 2021 Sep;477(2253):20210457. doi: 10.1098/rspa.2021.0457. Epub 2021 Sep 22.
Popular songs are often said to be 'contagious', 'infectious' or 'viral'. We find that download count time series for many popular songs resemble infectious disease epidemic curves. This paper suggests infectious disease transmission models could help clarify mechanisms that contribute to the 'spread' of song preferences and how these mechanisms underlie song popularity. We analysed data from MixRadio, comprising song downloads through Nokia cell phones in Great Britain from 2007 to 2014. We compared the ability of the standard susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model and a phenomenological (spline) model to fit download time series of popular songs. We fitted these same models to simulated epidemic time series generated by the SIR model. Song downloads are captured better by the SIR model, to the same extent that actual SIR simulations are fitted better by the SIR model than by splines. This suggests that the social processes underlying song popularity are similar to those that drive infectious disease transmission. We draw conclusions about song popularity within specific genres based on estimated SIR parameters. In particular, we argue that faster spread of preferences for Electronica songs may reflect stronger connectivity of the 'susceptible community', compared with the larger and broader community that listens to more common genres.
流行歌曲常被形容为“有感染力的”“易传播的”或“像病毒一样传播”。我们发现许多流行歌曲的下载量时间序列类似于传染病的流行曲线。本文表明，传染病传播模型有助于阐明促成歌曲偏好“传播”的机制，以及这些机制如何构成歌曲流行度的基础。我们分析了MixRadio的数据，这些数据包含2007年至2014年英国通过诺基亚手机进行的歌曲下载情况。我们比较了标准的易感-感染-康复（SIR）流行模型和一个现象学（样条）模型对流行歌曲下载时间序列的拟合能力。我们将这些相同的模型应用于由SIR模型生成的模拟流行时间序列。SIR模型对歌曲下载量的拟合效果更好，就如同实际的SIR模拟中SIR模型比样条模型的拟合效果更好一样。这表明歌曲流行背后的社会过程与推动传染病传播的过程相似。我们基于估计的SIR参数得出特定音乐类型内歌曲流行度的结论。特别是，我们认为与收听更常见音乐类型的规模更大、范围更广的群体相比，电子乐歌曲偏好的更快传播可能反映了“易感群体”更强的连接性。
