Jiang Xuandong, Wang Yun, Pan Yuting, Zhang Weimin
Intensive Care Unit, Dongyang Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Jinhua, China.
Front Med (Lausanne). 2022 Jan 27;9:837382. doi: 10.3389/fmed.2022.837382. eCollection 2022.
Sepsis-associated thrombocytopenia (SAT) is a common complication in the intensive care unit (ICU), which significantly increases the mortality rate and leads to poor prognosis of diseases. Machine learning (ML) is widely used in disease prediction in critically ill patients. Here, we aimed to establish prediction models for platelet decrease and severe platelet decrease in ICU patients with sepsis based on four common ML algorithms and identify the best prediction model. The research subjects were 1,455 ICU sepsis patients admitted to Dongyang People's Hospital affiliated with Wenzhou Medical University from January 1, 2015, to October 31, 2019. Basic clinical demographic information, biochemical indicators, and clinical outcomes were recorded. The prediction models were based on four ML algorithms: random forest, neural network, gradient boosting machine, and Bayesian algorithms. Thrombocytopenia was found to occur in 732 patients (49.7%). The mechanical ventilation time and length of ICU stay were longer, and the mortality rate was higher for the thrombocytopenia group than for the non-thrombocytopenia group. The models were validated on an online international database (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of the four models for the prediction of thrombocytopenia were between 0.54 and 0.72. The AUCs of the models for the prediction of severe thrombocytopenia were between 0.70 and 0.77. The neural network and gradient boosting machine models effectively predicted the occurrence of SAT, and the Bayesian models had the best performance in predicting severe thrombocytopenia. Therefore, these models can be used to identify such high-risk patients at an early stage and guide individualized clinical treatment, to improve the prognosis of diseases.
脓毒症相关血小板减少症(SAT)是重症监护病房(ICU)常见的并发症,它会显著提高死亡率并导致疾病预后不良。机器学习(ML)广泛应用于危重症患者的疾病预测。在此,我们旨在基于四种常见的ML算法建立ICU脓毒症患者血小板减少和严重血小板减少的预测模型,并确定最佳预测模型。研究对象为2015年1月1日至2019年10月31日期间温州医科大学附属东阳人民医院收治的1455例ICU脓毒症患者。记录基本临床人口统计学信息、生化指标和临床结局。预测模型基于四种ML算法:随机森林、神经网络、梯度提升机和贝叶斯算法。发现732例患者(49.7%)发生血小板减少症。血小板减少症组的机械通气时间和ICU住院时间更长,死亡率也高于非血小板减少症组。这些模型在一个在线国际数据库(重症监护医学信息集市III)上进行了验证。四种血小板减少症预测模型的受试者操作特征曲线(AUC)下面积在0.54至0.72之间。严重血小板减少症预测模型的AUC在0.70至0.77之间。神经网络和梯度提升机模型有效预测了SAT的发生,贝叶斯模型在预测严重血小板减少症方面表现最佳。因此,这些模型可用于早期识别此类高危患者并指导个体化临床治疗,以改善疾病预后。