School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China.
Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
Nat Commun. 2019 Sep 9;10(1):4088. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-12213-6.
Emissions trading scheme (ETS) has been adopted by an increasing number of countries and regions for carbon mitigation, but its actual effect depends on specific program design and institutional context. Before launching the world largest ETS, China experimented with seven independent regional pilots, whose effects are only indirectly explored. Here we provide firm-level evidence of the innovation effect directly from China's pilot emissions trading, based on latest patenting information and a quasi-experimental design. China's pilots increase low-carbon innovation of ETS firms by 5-10% without crowding out their other technology innovation. The increase from ETS firms accounts for about 1% increase of the regional low-carbon patents, while a similar increase from large non-ETS firms is also induced by the ETS. Most importantly, the effect is not associated with permit price, auction, or firm characteristics, but is driven by mass-based allowance allocation. A rate-based approach, however, is adopted by China's national market.
排放交易计划 (ETS) 已经被越来越多的国家和地区采用，以实现碳减排，但它的实际效果取决于具体的计划设计和制度背景。在推出全球最大的 ETS 之前，中国进行了七个独立的区域试点，其效果仅被间接地探索。在这里，我们基于最新的专利信息和准实验设计，直接从中国的试点排放交易中提供了企业层面的创新效应证据。中国的试点计划将 ETS 企业的低碳创新提高了 5-10%，而没有挤出它们的其他技术创新。ETS 企业的增长占区域低碳专利增长的 1%左右，而大型非 ETS 企业的类似增长也受到 ETS 的推动。最重要的是，这种效应与许可证价格、拍卖或企业特征无关，而是由基于总量的配额分配驱动的。然而，中国的国家市场采用的是基于比例的方法。
