Department of Civil Engineering, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka.
Center for Global Commons, Institute for Future Initiatives, The University of Tokyo, Bunkyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Risk Anal. 2022 Dec;42(12):2735-2747. doi: 10.1111/risa.13894. Epub 2022 Feb 16.
Floods cause severe damage to people as well as to properties. The same flood can cause different levels of damage to different households, but investigations into floods tend to be conducted on regional and national scales, thereby missing these local variations. It is therefore necessary to understand individual experiences of flood damage to implement effective flood management strategies on a local scale. The main objectives of this study were to develop a model that represents the relationship between socioeconomic conditions and flood damage at a local scale, and to understand the socioeconomic factors most closely tied to flood damage. The analysis is novel in that it considers not only the impact of flood characteristics, but also the impact of social, economic, and geographic factors on flood damage. This analysis derives from a quantitative modeling approach based on community responses, with the responses obtained through questionnaire surveys that consider four consecutive floods of differing severity. Path analysis was used to develop a model to represent the relationships between these factors. A randomly selected sample of 150 data points was used for model development, and nine random samples of 150 data points were used to validate the model. Results suggest that poor households, located in vulnerable, low-lying areas near rivers, suffer the most from being exposed to frequent, severe floods. Further, the results show that the socioeconomic factors with the most significant bearing on flood damage are per capita income and geographic location of the household. The results can be represented as a cycle, showing that social, economic, geographic, and flood characteristics are interrelated in ways that influence flood damage. This empirical analysis highlights a need for local-scale flood damage assessments, as offered in this article but seldom seen in other relevant literature. Our assessment was achieved by analyzing the impact of socioeconomic and geographic conditions and considering the relationship between flood characteristics and flood damage.
洪水不仅对人们，而且对财产都会造成严重的破坏。同样的洪水可能会对不同的家庭造成不同程度的破坏，但洪水调查往往是在区域和国家范围内进行的，因此会忽略这些局部差异。因此，有必要了解洪水对个人造成的破坏，以便在地方一级实施有效的洪水管理策略。本研究的主要目的是建立一个模型，以代表地方尺度上社会经济条件与洪水破坏之间的关系，并了解与洪水破坏关系最密切的社会经济因素。本研究的分析具有创新性，因为它不仅考虑了洪水特征的影响，还考虑了社会、经济和地理因素对洪水破坏的影响。本分析源于一种基于社区响应的定量建模方法，通过问卷调查获得响应，这些问卷考虑了四次不同严重程度的连续洪水。路径分析用于建立一个模型，以表示这些因素之间的关系。随机选择了 150 个数据点的样本用于模型开发，随机选择了 9 个包含 150 个数据点的样本用于验证模型。结果表明，位于河流附近脆弱的低洼地区的贫困家庭最容易遭受频繁、严重的洪水暴露。此外，结果还表明，对洪水破坏影响最大的社会经济因素是人均收入和家庭的地理位置。结果可以用一个循环来表示，表明社会、经济、地理和洪水特征是相互关联的，会影响洪水破坏。这种实证分析强调了进行地方尺度洪水破坏评估的必要性，本文提供了这样的评估方法，但在其他相关文献中很少见到。我们的评估是通过分析社会经济和地理条件的影响，并考虑洪水特征与洪水破坏之间的关系来实现的。
