Department of Civil Engineering, National Chi Nan University, Nantou, Taiwan.
Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Landseed International Polyclinic, Taichung, Taiwan.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2022;23(3):140-145. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2022.2026937. Epub 2022 Feb 22.
Motorcycles comprised over 60% of motor vehicles in Taiwan. There were still many motorcycle crashes in Taiwan, especially among young riders. This study investigated the characteristics of novice motorcyclist crashes in Taiwan over the period January 2011 to December 2016. Various risk factors affecting the severity of novice motorcyclist crashes, such as the rider characteristics, licensing conditions, and the environment, were examined.
To model the count data with multiple crash severities, several regression models were considered. The multinomial logit (MNL) model, ordered logit (OL) model, and partial proportional odds (PPO) model were chosen and investigated for the relationships between the severity of novice motorcyclist crashes and potential risk factors.
The results showed that the novice rider who was underage or unlicensed had a higher probability of a fatal crash. Male sex, helmet use, drinking, college student, frontal impact, urban or dry road, and daytime all played significant roles in novice motorcyclist crashes.
Taiwan traffic safety needs further policy adjustments and public education toward novice motorcycle crashes. Adequate driving training and providing a user-friendly environment for novice riders could help. Taiwan should consider graduated driver licensing systems for skill-building and riding supervision for new motorcyclists.
台湾的机动车中，摩托车占比超过 60%。台湾仍有许多摩托车事故，尤其是在年轻骑手当中。本研究调查了 2011 年 1 月至 2016 年 12 月期间台湾新手摩托车骑手事故的特征。研究考察了影响新手摩托车骑手事故严重程度的各种风险因素，如骑手特征、驾驶执照状况和环境等。
为了对具有多种事故严重程度的计数数据进行建模，考虑了几种回归模型。选择了多项逻辑回归（MNL）模型、有序逻辑回归（OL）模型和部分比例优势（PPO）模型，以研究新手摩托车骑手事故严重程度与潜在风险因素之间的关系。
结果表明，未成年或无照骑手发生致命事故的可能性更高。男性、戴头盔、饮酒、大学生、正面碰撞、城市或干燥道路以及白天等因素对新手摩托车骑手事故有显著影响。
台湾交通安全需要进一步调整政策和开展针对新手摩托车事故的公众教育。充分的驾驶培训和为新手骑手提供友好的环境将有所帮助。台湾应考虑实施分级驾照制度，以帮助新摩托车手进行技能培养和骑行监督。
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