Nuffield Department of Population Health, Health Economics Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, John Radcliffe Hospital, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Health Econ. 2022 May;31(5):836-858. doi: 10.1002/hec.4486. Epub 2022 Feb 22.
Information on attitudes to risk could increase understanding of and explain risky health behaviors. We investigate two approaches to eliciting risk preferences in the health domain, a novel "indirect" lottery elicitation approach with health states as outcomes and a "direct" approach where respondents are asked directly about their willingness to take risks. We compare the ability of the two approaches to predict health-related risky behaviors in a general adult population. We also investigate a potential framing effect in the indirect lottery elicitation approach. We find that risk preferences elicited using the direct approach can better predict health-related risky behavior than those elicited using the indirect approach. Moreover, a seemingly innocuous change to the framing of the lottery question results in significantly different risk preference estimates, and conflicting conclusions about the ability of the indicators to predict risky health behaviors.
有关风险态度的信息可以增进对风险健康行为的理解和解释。我们研究了两种在健康领域中引出风险偏好的方法，一种是新颖的“间接”彩票引出方法，其结果是健康状态，另一种是直接方法，其中要求受访者直接表示他们承担风险的意愿。我们比较了这两种方法在一般成年人群中预测与健康相关的风险行为的能力。我们还研究了间接彩票引出方法中的潜在框架效应。我们发现，使用直接方法引出的风险偏好可以更好地预测与健康相关的风险行为，而使用间接方法引出的风险偏好则不然。此外，彩票问题框架的看似微不足道的变化会导致风险偏好估计值显著不同，并且关于这些指标预测风险健康行为能力的结论也相互矛盾。
