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道路安全管理的熵方法：以俄罗斯联邦为例

Entropy Method of Road Safety Management: Case Study of the Russian Federation.

作者信息

Petrov Artur I

机构信息

Department of Road Transport Operation, The Institute of Transport, Industrial University of Tyumen, 625027 Tyumen, Russia.

出版信息

Entropy (Basel). 2022 Jan 25;24(2):177. doi: 10.3390/e24020177.

DOI:10.3390/e24020177
PMID:35205472
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8870753/
Abstract

Within the framework of this paper, the author's entropy method of road safety management in large-sized systems is considered. The road safety management system in the Russian Federation, the largest country in the world, was selected for this case study. The purpose of the article is to present the opportunities and methodology of the use of quantitative assessments of the orderliness of the road accident rate formation process in regional transport systems for road safety management. Orderliness, in other words, systemic anti-chaos, can be quantified using the C. Shannon informational entropy . The article consists of the results of the issue's state analysis; methodology of assessment of the orderliness of the road accident rate formation process based on the using of the cause-and-effect chain; entropic method of the road safety management in large-scale systems, in particular, the algorithm of management of regional road safety in Russia taking into account the level of its entropic orderliness; and examples of the quantitative evaluation of the orderliness of regional road safety provision systems in Russia. The key results of the research are spatio-temporal patterns of the change of the orderliness of the road safety provision systems in the Russian Federation in 2004-2020. Based on the results, conclusions and recommendations about the practical application of the entropic method of road safety management in large federal states with complex administrative structures were formulated. These results give an idea of the possibilities of the usage of entropic approaches in road safety management to assess the orderliness of the regional transport systems and the advantages of the entropic method over other managerial methods.

摘要

在本文框架内，考虑了作者提出的大型系统道路安全管理熵方法。本案例研究选取了世界上最大的国家俄罗斯联邦的道路安全管理系统。本文的目的是介绍在区域交通系统中，利用道路事故率形成过程的有序性定量评估进行道路安全管理的机遇和方法。换言之，系统的反混乱即有序性，可以用C. 香农信息熵进行量化。本文包括该问题的现状分析结果；基于因果链对道路事故率形成过程有序性的评估方法；大型系统道路安全管理的熵方法，特别是考虑俄罗斯区域道路安全熵有序水平的俄罗斯区域道路安全管理算法；以及俄罗斯区域道路安全保障系统有序性定量评估的示例。研究的关键结果是2004 - 2020年俄罗斯联邦道路安全保障系统有序性变化的时空模式。基于这些结果，针对在具有复杂行政结构的大型联邦国家实际应用道路安全管理熵方法提出了结论和建议。这些结果说明了在道路安全管理中使用熵方法评估区域交通系统有序性的可能性，以及熵方法相对于其他管理方法的优势。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/72d7/8870753/4b4aa011ce6d/entropy-24-00177-g011.jpg
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