Cervantes Francisco, Martins Marlei, Simmons Robert E
Centre for Statistics in Ecology, Environment and Conservation, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa.
FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa.
R Soc Open Sci. 2022 Feb 23;9(2):220043. doi: 10.1098/rsos.220043. eCollection 2022 Feb.
As the demand for carbon-neutral energy sources increases, so does the need to understand the impacts that these technologies have on the environment. Here, we assess the potential consequences of additional mortality on an Endangered raptor recently exposed to wind farms for the first time, the Black Harrier , one of the world's rarest harriers. We conduct a population viability assessment using a Bayesian model integrating life-history information and annual reporting rates from detection/non-detection surveys from the South African Bird Atlas Project. Our model estimates a global population of approximately 1300 birds currently declining at 2.3% per year, and one that could collapse in under 100 years, if an average of three to five adult birds are killed annually. This level of mortality may soon exist, given the current rate of fatalities and the number of wind farms planned within the species' distribution. In addition, we find that the population is sensitive to changes in climate. Our results highlight the critical need for appropriate placement, and adaptive management of wind farms and other infrastructure causing harrier mortality. We also show how detection/non-detection data may be used to infer population dynamics and viability, when population counts are unavailable.
随着对碳中和能源的需求增加，了解这些技术对环境的影响的需求也随之增加。在此，我们评估了首次接触风力发电场的濒危猛禽——黑鹞（世界上最稀有的鹞之一）额外死亡的潜在后果。我们使用贝叶斯模型进行种群生存力评估，该模型整合了来自南非鸟类地图集项目的检测/未检测调查的生活史信息和年度报告率。我们的模型估计，目前全球黑鹞种群约有1300只，且每年以2.3%的速度下降，如果每年平均有三到五只成年鸟死亡，该种群可能在100年内崩溃。鉴于目前的死亡速度以及该物种分布范围内规划的风力发电场数量，这种死亡水平可能很快就会出现。此外，我们发现该种群对气候变化很敏感。我们的结果凸显了对风力发电场和其他导致鹞死亡的基础设施进行适当选址和适应性管理的迫切需求。我们还展示了在无法获得种群数量时，如何使用检测/未检测数据来推断种群动态和生存力。
