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影响新冠病毒传播的因素及密切接触者追踪策略建模

Factors Affecting COVID-19 Transmission and Modelling of Close Contact Tracing Strategies.

作者信息

Yazdani Shahram, Heydari Majid, Foroughi Zeynab, Jabali Hadi

机构信息

National Agency for Strategic Research in Medical Education, Tehran, Iran.

Department of Health Services Management, School of Health Management and Information Sciences, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

出版信息

Iran J Public Health. 2021 Oct;50(10):2121-2131. doi: 10.18502/ijph.v50i10.7516.

DOI:10.18502/ijph.v50i10.7516
PMID:35223580
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8819214/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

Close contact tracing is an essential measure that countries are applying to combat the epidemic of COVID-19. The purpose of contact tracing is to rapidly identify potentially infected individuals and prevent further spread of the disease. In this study, based on the factors affecting the COVID-19 transmission, a scoring protocol is provided for close contact tracing.

METHODS

First, the factors affecting the COVID-19 transmission in close contacts were identified by a rapid review of the literature. Data were gathered by searching the Embase, PubMed, Google Scholar, and Scopus databases. Then, by formulating and scoring the identified factors with two sessions of the expert panel, close contact transmission risk score determined, and a protocol for contacts tracing was designed.

RESULTS

Close contact transmission risk depends on the contact environment characteristics, the infectivity (virus shedding) of the sentinel case, and contact characteristics. Based on these factors, the close contact transmission risk score and contact tracing protocol were prepared.

CONCLUSION

The close contact transmission risk scores will provide the ability to contact classifications and developing specific tracing strategies for them. Given that there are not any specific treatments for COVID-19 and lack of universal vaccination, applying nonpharmaceutical measures such as contact tracing along with physical distancing is very crucial. Therefore, we recommended this model to the evaluation of exposure risk and contact tracing.

摘要

背景

密切接触者追踪是各国用于抗击新冠疫情的一项重要措施。接触者追踪的目的是迅速识别潜在感染个体并防止疾病进一步传播。在本研究中,基于影响新冠病毒传播的因素,提供了一种密切接触者追踪的评分方案。

方法

首先,通过对文献的快速回顾确定密切接触者中影响新冠病毒传播的因素。通过检索Embase、PubMed、谷歌学术和Scopus数据库收集数据。然后,通过专家小组的两轮会议对确定的因素进行制定和评分,确定密切接触传播风险评分,并设计接触者追踪方案。

结果

密切接触传播风险取决于接触环境特征、哨兵病例的传染性(病毒脱落情况)以及接触特征。基于这些因素,制定了密切接触传播风险评分和接触者追踪方案。

结论

密切接触传播风险评分将为接触者分类以及为其制定特定追踪策略提供依据。鉴于目前尚无针对新冠病毒的特效治疗方法且缺乏普遍接种疫苗的情况,实施诸如接触者追踪和物理距离等非药物措施至关重要。因此,我们建议将此模型用于暴露风险评估和接触者追踪。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9845/8819214/d0786a5c0b7b/IJPH-50-2121-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9845/8819214/ea36afdbf178/IJPH-50-2121-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9845/8819214/d852b22af45d/IJPH-50-2121-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9845/8819214/c9cd899ff0ac/IJPH-50-2121-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9845/8819214/2eb3408422bd/IJPH-50-2121-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9845/8819214/d0786a5c0b7b/IJPH-50-2121-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9845/8819214/ea36afdbf178/IJPH-50-2121-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9845/8819214/d852b22af45d/IJPH-50-2121-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9845/8819214/c9cd899ff0ac/IJPH-50-2121-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9845/8819214/2eb3408422bd/IJPH-50-2121-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9845/8819214/d0786a5c0b7b/IJPH-50-2121-g005.jpg

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