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德国的 SARS-CoV-2 大流行可能代表了由年龄在 10-19 岁、中年男性或老年个体引发的大量本地但独立的局部流行的总和。

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany may represent the sum of a large number of local but independent epidemics each initiated by individuals aged 10-19 years, middle-aged males, or elderly individuals.

机构信息

Department of Pediatrics, Division of Neuropediatrics and Social Pediatrics, RWTH Aachen University Hospital, Aachen, Germany.

Division of virology and serology, Laboratory Diagnostic Center, RWTH Aachen University Hospital, Aachen, Germany.

出版信息

J Med Virol. 2022 Jul;94(7):3087-3095. doi: 10.1002/jmv.27682. Epub 2022 Mar 10.

Abstract

Many epidemiological aspects of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemics, particularly those affecting children, are still sparsely elucidated. Data on the first pandemic phase during the year 2020 indicated that children might serve as a virus reservoir. We now analyzed data on more than 530 000 SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and 12 503 anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests performed in the west of Germany until Week 4 of 2021. We show that children of at least 10 years of age may play a prominent role in the pandemic showing highest PCR-positive rates in the first (Weeks 28-35), second (Weeks 42-48), and third wave (Week 50 of 2020-Week 2 2021) of the second pandemic phase, although the waves were not mainly initiated by children. The waves' kinetics differed even in nearby cities. Low PCR-positive rates were confined to areas of lower population density. PCR-positive rates were higher among middle-aged males compared with women and among very old females compared with males. From Week 25, seroprevalence rates slowly increased to 50%, indicating ongoing virus activity. In conclusion, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemics is characterized by many local but interacting epidemics, initiated and driven by different social groups. Children may not be the main initiators of virus spreading but older children may significantly affect the course of the pandemic. High population density is associated with higher SARS-CoV-2 incidence.

摘要

严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2(SARS-CoV-2)大流行的许多流行病学方面,尤其是那些影响儿童的方面,仍未得到充分阐明。2020 年大流行第一阶段的数据表明,儿童可能是病毒的储存库。我们现在分析了截至 2021 年第 4 周在德国西部进行的超过 530000 次 SARS-CoV-2 聚合酶链反应(PCR)和 12503 次抗 SARS-CoV-2 抗体检测的数据。我们表明,至少 10 岁的儿童可能在大流行中发挥突出作用,在第二波大流行的第一波(第 28-35 周)、第二波(第 42-48 周)和第三波(第 50 周 2020-第 2 周 2021 年)中显示出最高的 PCR 阳性率,尽管这些波主要不是由儿童引发的。波的动力学甚至在附近的城市也有所不同。低 PCR 阳性率仅限于人口密度较低的地区。与女性相比,中年男性的 PCR 阳性率较高,与男性相比,非常老年女性的 PCR 阳性率较高。从第 25 周开始,血清阳性率缓慢增加到 50%,表明病毒仍在活跃。总之,SARS-CoV-2 大流行的特点是许多局部但相互作用的流行,由不同的社会群体引发和驱动。儿童可能不是病毒传播的主要启动者,但年龄较大的儿童可能会显著影响大流行的进程。人口密度高与 SARS-CoV-2 发病率高有关。

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