Infectious Diseases Division, Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, France.
Unit of Molecular Virology and Vaccinology, Virology Department, Theravectys, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France.
Nat Commun. 2021 May 21;12(1):3025. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-23233-6.
Assessment of the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections is critical for monitoring the course and extent of the COVID-19 epidemic. Here, we report estimated seroprevalence in the French population and the proportion of infected individuals who developed neutralising antibodies at three points throughout the first epidemic wave. Testing 11,000 residual specimens for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and neutralising antibodies, we find nationwide seroprevalence of 0.41% (95% CI: 0.05-0.88) mid-March, 4.14% (95% CI: 3.31-4.99) mid-April and 4.93% (95% CI: 4.02-5.89) mid-May 2020. Approximately 70% of seropositive individuals have detectable neutralising antibodies. Infection fatality rate is 0.84% (95% CI: 0.70-1.03) and increases exponentially with age. These results confirm that the nationwide lockdown substantially curbed transmission and that the vast majority of the French population remained susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 in May 2020. Our study shows the progression of the first epidemic wave and provides a framework to inform the ongoing public health response as viral transmission continues globally.
评估 SARS-CoV-2 感染的累积发病率对于监测 COVID-19 疫情的进程和范围至关重要。在这里，我们报告了在第一次疫情浪潮期间三个时间点的法国人群中估计的血清流行率以及产生中和抗体的感染者比例。通过对 11000 份剩余样本进行抗 SARS-CoV-2 IgG 和中和抗体检测，我们发现 2020 年 3 月中旬全国血清流行率为 0.41%（95%CI：0.05-0.88），4 月中旬为 4.14%（95%CI：3.31-4.99），5 月中旬为 4.93%（95%CI：4.02-5.89）。大约 70%的血清阳性者具有可检测到的中和抗体。感染病死率为 0.84%（95%CI：0.70-1.03），并随年龄呈指数增长。这些结果证实，全国范围的封锁大大遏制了传播，并且 2020 年 5 月，法国绝大多数人口仍然容易感染 SARS-CoV-2。我们的研究显示了第一次疫情浪潮的进展，并为继续在全球范围内传播的病毒提供了一个框架，以告知正在进行的公共卫生应对措施。
