Dioha Michael O, Duan Lei, Ruggles Tyler H, Bellocchi Sara, Caldeira Ken
Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Via Del Politecnico 1, I-00133 Rome, Italy.
iScience. 2022 Feb 14;25(3):103926. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.103926. eCollection 2022 Mar 18.
We employed a bottom-up modeling framework to examine a set of scenarios to generate insights on the techno-economic and environmental implications of increasing levels of electric vehicle (EV) penetration using Nigeria as a case study. Results indicate that, despite Nigeria having a natural gas-dominated electricity system, the deployment of EVs can support the decarbonization of the transportation and power sectors but at a relatively high cost. The cost of EVs would need to drop by ∼40% to become cost-competitive. However, if variable renewable energy sources deliver the EVs power requirement with a bidirectional vehicle-to-grid (V2G) charging strategy, then the cost of EVs would need to decline by only ∼30%. Not all EVs need to participate in a V2G charging strategy in order to realize the full benefits of the strategy. Expanding renewables capacity leads to additional reduction in CO emission and decarbonization cost but at different magnitudes based on the charging strategy.
我们采用了一种自下而上的建模框架，以尼日利亚为案例研究，考察了一系列情景，以深入了解电动汽车（EV）渗透率不断提高所带来的技术经济和环境影响。结果表明，尽管尼日利亚的电力系统以天然气为主，但电动汽车的部署可以支持交通运输和电力部门的脱碳，不过成本相对较高。电动汽车的成本需要下降约40%才能具备成本竞争力。然而，如果可变可再生能源通过双向车对网（V2G）充电策略满足电动汽车的电力需求，那么电动汽车的成本仅需下降约30%。并非所有电动汽车都需要参与V2G充电策略才能实现该策略的全部益处。扩大可再生能源产能会进一步减少碳排放和脱碳成本，但根据充电策略的不同，减少幅度也有所不同。
