Morlon Hélène, Robin Stéphane, Hartig Florian
Institut de Biologie de l'Ecole Normale Supérieure (IBENS), Ecole Normale Supérieure, CNRS, INSERM, PSL Research University, Paris, France.
UMR MIA-Paris, AgroParisTech, INRA, Paris-Saclay University, 75005 Paris, France; Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO), Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, CNRS, Sorbonne University, Paris, France.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2022 Jun;37(6):497-506. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2022.02.004. Epub 2022 Mar 1.
A lot of what we know about past speciation and extinction dynamics is based on statistically fitting birth-death processes to phylogenies of extant species. Despite their wide use, the reliability of these tools is regularly questioned. It was recently demonstrated that vast 'congruent' sets of alternative diversification histories cannot be distinguished (i.e., are not identifiable) using extant phylogenies alone, reanimating the debate about the limits of phylogenetic diversification analysis. Here, we summarize what we know about the identifiability of the birth-death process and how identifiability issues can be addressed. We conclude that extant phylogenies, when combined with appropriate prior hypotheses and regularization techniques, can still tell us a lot about past diversification dynamics.
我们对过去物种形成和灭绝动态的许多了解，都是基于将出生-死亡过程进行统计拟合，以匹配现存物种的系统发育。尽管这些工具被广泛使用，但其可靠性经常受到质疑。最近有研究表明，仅使用现存的系统发育关系，无法区分（即无法识别）大量“一致”的替代多样化历史集，这再次引发了关于系统发育多样化分析局限性的争论。在此，我们总结了我们对出生-死亡过程可识别性的了解，以及如何解决可识别性问题。我们得出结论，现存的系统发育关系，当与适当的先验假设和正则化技术相结合时，仍然可以告诉我们很多关于过去多样化动态的信息。
