Weather fluctuation can override the effects of integrated nutrient management on fungal disease incidence in the rice fields in Taiwan.

Both weather fluctuation and farming system influence the epidemiology of crop diseases. However, short-term experiments are difficult to mechanistically extrapolate into long-term ecological responses. Using a mechanistic model with Bayesian inference, long-term data spanning 10 years were used to construct relationships among weather fluctuation (temperature, relative humidity, wind, and rainfall), farming system (conventional and low-external-input farming), and crop disease in experimental rice fields in Taiwan. Conventional and low-external-input farming had similar influences on the disease incidence of rice blast. Temperature had a positive influence on the disease incidence only under high relative humidity. Rainfall positively affected the disease incidence until an optimum level of rainfall. Low-external-input farming, with a lower application of fertilizers and other sustainable nutrient management, achieved similar effects on the disease incidence to those achieved by conventional farming. This suggests that weather fluctuation may override the effect of the farming systems on fungal disease incidence in rice fields.