Department of Environmental Sciences and Management, University of Liege, Arlon Campus Environnement, 185 Avenue de Longwy, Arlon, 6700, Belgium,
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2014 Apr;21(7):4797-808. doi: 10.1007/s11356-013-2463-6. Epub 2013 Dec 28.
An empirical approach for simulating the infection and progress of leaf rust (caused by Puccinia triticina) during stem elongation on winter wheat was analysed for the 2000 to 2006 growing seasons. The approach was elaborated based on night weather conditions (i.e., air temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) and leaf rust occurrences. Data from three consecutive cropping seasons (2000-2002) at four representative sites of the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg were used in the set-up phase. The capability to correctly simulate the occurrence expression of P. triticina infections on the upper leaf layers was then assessed over the 2003-2006 period. Our study revealed that the development of leaf rust required a period of at least 12 consecutive hours with air temperatures ranging between 8 and 16 °C, a relative humidity greater than 60 % (optimal values being 12-16 °C and up to 80 % for air temperatures and relative humidity, respectively) and rainfall less than 1 mm. Moreover, leaf rust occurrences and infections were satisfactorily simulated. The false alarm ratio was ranged from 0.06 to 0.20 in all the study sites. The probability of detection and critical success index for WLR infection were also close to 1 (perfect score).
分析了 2000 至 2006 年生长季中冬小麦茎伸长期间叶锈（由小麦柄锈菌引起）感染和发展的模拟实证方法。该方法是基于夜间天气条件（即空气温度、相对湿度和降雨量）和叶锈发生情况制定的。在设置阶段，使用了来自卢森堡大公国四个代表性地点的三个连续种植季节（2000-2002 年）的数据。然后，在 2003-2006 年期间评估了正确模拟上叶层小麦柄锈菌感染发生情况的能力。研究表明，叶锈的发展至少需要连续 12 小时空气温度在 8 至 16°C 之间、相对湿度大于 60%（最佳值分别为 12-16°C 和空气温度和相对湿度的 80%）以及降雨量小于 1 毫米。此外，叶锈的发生和感染得到了较好的模拟。所有研究地点的误报率均在 0.06 至 0.20 之间。WLR 感染的探测概率和临界成功指数也接近 1（满分）。
