Khalil Mohamad Ali, Fatmi Mahmudur Rahman
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of British Columbia, BC, Canada.
University of British Columbia, School of Engineering, Civil Engineering, Okanagan campus, EME 3231, 1137 Alumni Avenue, Kelowna, BC, V1V 1V7, Canada.
Sustain Cities Soc. 2022 Jun;81:103832. doi: 10.1016/j.scs.2022.103832. Epub 2022 Mar 10.
Integrating occupant behavior with residential energy use for detailed energy quantification has attracted research attention. However, many of the available models fail to capture unseen behavior, especially in unprecedented situations such as COVID-19 lockdowns. In this study, we adopted a hybrid approach consisting of agent-based simulation, machine learning and energy simulation techniques to simulate the urban energy consumption considering the occupants' behavior. An agent-based model is developed to simulate the in-home and out-of-home activities of individuals. Separate models were developed to recognize physical characteristics of residential dwellings, including heating equipment, source of energy, and thermostat setpoints. The developed modeling framework was implemented as a case study for the Central Okanagan region of British Columbia, where alternative COVID-19 scenarios were tested. The results suggested that during the pandemic, the daily average in-home-activity duration (IHD) increased by approximately 80%, causing the energy consumption to increase by around 29%. After the pandemic, the average daily IHD is expected to be higher by approximately 32% compared with the pre-pandemic situation, which translates to an approximately 12% increase in energy consumption. The results of this study can help us understand the implications of the imposed COVID-19 lockdown with respect to energy usage in residential locations.
将居住者行为与住宅能源使用相结合以进行详细的能源量化已引起了研究关注。然而，许多现有模型未能捕捉到未被观察到的行为，尤其是在诸如新冠疫情封锁等前所未有的情况下。在本研究中，我们采用了一种由基于智能体的模拟、机器学习和能源模拟技术组成的混合方法，来模拟考虑居住者行为的城市能源消耗。开发了一个基于智能体的模型来模拟个人的居家和外出活动。还开发了单独的模型来识别住宅的物理特征，包括供暖设备、能源来源和恒温器设定点。所开发的建模框架作为不列颠哥伦比亚省中奥肯那根地区的一个案例研究得以实施，在那里对不同的新冠疫情情景进行了测试。结果表明，在疫情期间，每日平均居家活动时长（IHD）增加了约80%，导致能源消耗增加了约29%。疫情过后，预计每日平均IHD将比疫情前的情况高出约32%，这意味着能源消耗将增加约12%。本研究结果有助于我们了解新冠疫情封锁对住宅能源使用的影响。
