土耳其新冠肺炎的时空分析
Spatiotemporal Analysis of Covid-19 in Turkey.
作者信息
Aral Neşe, Bakir Hasan
机构信息
Res. Assist., Bursa Uludag University/Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Econometrics, Bursa-Turkey.
Associate proffesor, Bursa Uludag University/Vocational School of Social Sciences, Department of International Trade, Bursa-Turkey.
出版信息
Sustain Cities Soc. 2022 Jan;76:103421. doi: 10.1016/j.scs.2021.103421. Epub 2021 Oct 2.
The Covid-19 pandemic continues to threaten public health around the world. Understanding the spatial dimension of this impact is very important in terms of controlling and reducing the spread of the pandemic. This study measures the spatial association of the Covid-19 outbreak in Turkey between February 8 and May 28, 2021 and reveals its spatiotemporal pattern. In this context, global and local spatial autocorrelation was used to determine whether there is a spatial association of Covid-19 infections, while the spatial regression model was employed to reveal the geographical relationship of the potential factors affecting the number of Covid-19 cases. As a result of the analyzes made in this context, it has been observed that there are spatial associations and distinct spatial clusters in Covid-19 cases at the provincial level in Turkey. The results of the spatial regression model showed that population density and elderly dependency ratio are very important in explaining the model of Covid-19 case numbers. Additionally, it has been revealed that Covid-19 is affected by the Covid-19 numbers of neighboring provinces, apart from the said explanatory variables. The findings of the study revealed that spatial analysis is helpful in understanding the spread of the pandemic in Turkey. It has been determined that geographical location is an important factor to be considered in the investigation of the factors affecting Covid-19.
新冠疫情仍在全球威胁着公众健康。从控制和减少疫情传播的角度来看,了解这种影响的空间维度非常重要。本研究测量了2021年2月8日至5月28日土耳其新冠疫情的空间关联,并揭示了其时空模式。在此背景下,运用全局和局部空间自相关来确定新冠感染是否存在空间关联,同时采用空间回归模型来揭示影响新冠病例数的潜在因素的地理关系。在此背景下进行分析的结果显示,土耳其省级层面的新冠病例存在空间关联和明显的空间聚集。空间回归模型的结果表明,人口密度和老年抚养比在解释新冠病例数模型方面非常重要。此外,研究还发现,除了上述解释变量外,新冠疫情还受到周边省份新冠病例数的影响。该研究的结果表明,空间分析有助于理解土耳其疫情的传播情况。研究确定,地理位置是调查影响新冠疫情因素时需要考虑的一个重要因素。
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