Bazzo Vieira João Pedro, Vieira Braga Carlos Kauê, Pereira Rafael H M
Ipea - Institute for Applied Economic Research, Ed. BNDES, SBS Q. 1, 70076-900, Brasília - DF, Brazil.
Energy Policy. 2022 May;164:112906. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112906. Epub 2022 Mar 11.
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 on air travel demand and emissions in Brazil, the largest aviation market in Latin America. Combining detailed flight data and data on combustion emission factors, we estimate the CO emissions of domestic flights. A Bayesian structural time-series model was used to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on daily trends of air travel demand and emissions. The COVID-19 caused a reduction of 68% in national passengers and 63% in total CO emissions compared to what would have occurred if the pandemic had not happened. Despite such a sharp drop, fuel efficiency decreased after the COVID-19 outbreak, and passenger demand recovered to 64.2% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2020. The fast recovery in domestic flights by December 2020 indicates that the emissions could soon return to pre-pandemic levels, demonstrating the challenges of reducing emissions in the aviation sector in the short term.
本文评估了新冠疫情对拉丁美洲最大航空市场巴西航空旅行需求和排放的影响。结合详细的航班数据和燃烧排放因子数据，我们估算了国内航班的一氧化碳排放量。采用贝叶斯结构时间序列模型来评估新冠疫情对航空旅行需求和排放每日趋势的影响。与疫情未发生时的情况相比，新冠疫情导致全国乘客数量减少了68%，一氧化碳总排放量减少了63%。尽管降幅如此之大，但新冠疫情爆发后燃油效率有所下降，到2020年底，乘客需求恢复到疫情前水平的64.2%。到2020年12月国内航班的快速复苏表明，排放量可能很快恢复到疫情前水平，这显示了短期内航空业减排面临的挑战。
