Department of Politics and International Relations, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, UK.
Department of Economics and Law, Korea Military Academy, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Public Health. 2022 Apr;205:164-168. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2022.02.001. Epub 2022 Feb 15.
This study aimed to understand how politics, economics, and public health restrictions affected each other during the COVID-19 pandemic.
We use seemingly unrelated regressions on a monthly data set of government approval ratings, the stringency index, the time-dependent reproduction number (R), and unemployment, allowing the residuals in each regression to be correlated with each other. We also conduct sensitivity tests using weekly data and the growth in polls.
The study covers 27 European countries from April 2020 to April 2021. A unit increase in the R and COVID-19 cases per million increases the stringency index by 23.742 and 4.207, respectively; a unit increase in stringency boosts the incumbent's popularity by 0.384; the poll positively affects the stringency index; stringency has negative effects on the R; and the poll and stringency index have opposite effects on unemployment.
Political and economic pressures did not hinder the government from introducing stronger measures.
本研究旨在了解在 COVID-19 大流行期间，政治、经济和公共卫生限制是如何相互影响的。
我们使用每月数据集中的政府支持率、严格指数、时变繁殖数（R）和失业率进行似乎不相关的回归，允许每个回归中的残差相互关联。我们还使用每周数据和民意调查的增长进行敏感性测试。
本研究涵盖了 2020 年 4 月至 2021 年 4 月的 27 个欧洲国家。R 和每百万例 COVID-19 病例的单位增加分别使严格指数增加 23.742 和 4.207；严格指数的增加使现任者的支持率提高 0.384；民意调查对严格指数有积极影响；严格指数对 R 有负面影响；民意调查和严格指数对失业率有相反的影响。
政治和经济压力并没有阻碍政府采取更强有力的措施。
