Assessing the Spatiotemporal Spread Pattern of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Malaysia.

INTRODUCTION

The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic has greatly affected human health and socioeconomic backgrounds. This study examined the spatiotemporal spread pattern of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia from the index case to 291,774 cases in 13 months, emphasizing on the spatial autocorrelation of the high-risk cluster events and the spatial scan clustering pattern of transmission.

METHODOLOGY

We obtained the confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in Malaysia from the official GitHub repository of Malaysia's Ministry of Health from January 25, 2020 to February 24, 2021, 1 day before the national vaccination program was initiated. All analyses were based on the daily cumulated cases, which are derived from the sum of retrospective 7 days and the current day for smoothing purposes. We examined the daily global, local spatial autocorrelation and scan statistics of COVID-19 cases at district level using Moran's I and SaTScan™.

RESULTS

At the initial stage of the outbreak, Moran's I index > 0.5 ( < 0.05) was observed. Local Moran's I depicted the high-high cluster risk expanded from west to east of Malaysia. The cases surged exponentially after September 2020, with the high-high cluster in Sabah, from Kinabatangan on September 1 (cumulative cases = 9,354; Moran's I = 0.34; < 0.05), to 11 districts on October 19 (cumulative cases = 21,363, Moran's = 0.52, < 0.05). The most likely cluster identified from space-time scanning was centered in Jasin, Melaka (RR = 11.93; < 0.001) which encompassed 36 districts with a radius of 178.8 km, from November 24, 2020 to February 24, 2021, followed by the Sabah cluster.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Both analyses complemented each other in depicting underlying spatiotemporal clustering risk, giving detailed space-time spread information at district level. This daily analysis could be valuable insight into real-time reporting of transmission intensity, and alert for the public to avoid visiting the high-risk areas during the pandemic. The spatiotemporal transmission risk pattern could be used to monitor the spread of the pandemic.