Bellomo Nicola, Bingham Richard, Chaplain Mark A J, Dosi Giovanni, Forni Guido, Knopoff Damian A, Lowengrub John, Twarock Reidun, Virgillito Maria Enrica
Departamento de Matemática Aplicada, University of Granada, Spain.
Departments of Mathematics and Biology, York Cross-disciplinary Centre for Systems Analysis, University of York, UK.
Math Models Methods Appl Sci. 2020 Jul;30(8):1591-1651. doi: 10.1142/s0218202520500323. Epub 2020 Aug 19.
This paper is devoted to the multidisciplinary modelling of a pandemic initiated by an aggressive virus, specifically the so-called 2 2. The study is developed within a multiscale framework accounting for the interaction of different spatial scales, from the small scale of the virus itself and cells, to the large scale of individuals and further up to the collective behaviour of populations. An interdisciplinary vision is developed thanks to the contributions of epidemiologists, immunologists and economists as well as those of mathematical modellers. The first part of the contents is devoted to understanding the complex features of the system and to the design of a modelling rationale. The modelling approach is treated in the second part of the paper by showing both how the virus propagates into infected individuals, successfully and not successfully recovered, and also the spatial patterns, which are subsequently studied by kinetic and lattice models. The third part reports the contribution of research in the fields of virology, epidemiology, immune competition, and economy focussed also on social behaviours. Finally, a critical analysis is proposed looking ahead to research perspectives.
本文致力于对由一种侵袭性病毒引发的大流行进行多学科建模，特别是所谓的2 2。该研究是在一个多尺度框架内开展的，该框架考虑了从病毒本身和细胞的小尺度到个体的大尺度，再到人群集体行为的不同空间尺度之间的相互作用。由于流行病学家、免疫学家、经济学家以及数学建模者的贡献，形成了一种跨学科的视角。内容的第一部分致力于理解该系统的复杂特征以及建模原理的设计。本文的第二部分通过展示病毒如何传播到被感染个体、成功和未成功康复的情况以及空间模式来探讨建模方法，随后通过动力学模型和晶格模型对这些模式进行研究。第三部分报告了病毒学、流行病学、免疫竞争和经济学领域的研究贡献，这些研究也关注社会行为。最后，提出了一项批判性分析，展望研究前景。
