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基于数学模型的疫苗时效性效力评估。

Time-dependent vaccine efficacy estimation quantified by a mathematical model.

机构信息

Instituto de Matemática Pura e Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

School of Mathematics, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2023 May 11;18(5):e0285466. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0285466. eCollection 2023.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0285466
PMID:37167285
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10174497/
Abstract

In this paper we calculate the variation of the estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) due to the time-dependent force of infection resulting from the difference between the moment the Clinical Trial (CT) begins and the peak in the outbreak intensity. Using a simple mathematical model we tested the hypothesis that the time difference between the moment the CT begins and the peak in the outbreak intensity determines substantially different values for VE. We exemplify the method with the case of the VE efficacy estimation for one of the vaccines against the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

摘要

在本文中，我们计算了由于临床试验（CT）开始时间和疫情高峰期之间的感染强度差异导致的时变感染力对估计疫苗效力（VE）的影响。我们使用一个简单的数学模型检验了一个假设，即 CT 开始时间和疫情高峰期之间的时间差决定了 VE 的数值有很大的不同。我们用针对新型冠状病毒 SARS-CoV-2 的一种疫苗的 VE 效力估计案例说明了这种方法。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/67bf38df7346/pone.0285466.g013.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/46ba7aae4ce1/pone.0285466.g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/40e81ad427d6/pone.0285466.g008.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/67bf38df7346/pone.0285466.g013.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/a99eff6c1a33/pone.0285466.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/208e072ad855/pone.0285466.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/bebf277ab0af/pone.0285466.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/c82b3dd9fd12/pone.0285466.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/3f784228d676/pone.0285466.g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/dee6a03f0c38/pone.0285466.g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/46ba7aae4ce1/pone.0285466.g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/40e81ad427d6/pone.0285466.g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/40f66862b9e9/pone.0285466.g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/949c415289f8/pone.0285466.g010.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/71e758f75a6c/pone.0285466.g011.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/b9bc679c08bb/pone.0285466.g012.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45c5/10174497/67bf38df7346/pone.0285466.g013.jpg

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