Alam Intekhab, Otani Shinji, Majbauddin Abir, Qing Qing, Ishizu Satomi Funaki, Masumoto Toshio, Amano Hiroki, Kurozawa Youichi
Division of Health Administration and Promotion, Department of Social Medicine, School of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Tottori University, Yonago 683-8503, Japan.
International Platform for Dryland Research and Education, Tottori University, Tottori 680-0001, Japan.
Yonago Acta Med. 2021 Aug 6;64(3):292-302. doi: 10.33160/yam.2021.08.007. eCollection 2021 Aug.
Drought has been a considerable problem for many years in northern Bangladesh. However, the health impacts of drought in this region are not well understood.
This study analyzed the impact of drought duration and severity on select causes of mortality in northern Bangladesh. Rainfall data from three meteorological stations (Rangpur, Dinajpur and Nilphamari) in northern Bangladesh were used to assess drought and non-drought periods, and the Standardized Precipitation Index was used to categorize mild, moderate, severe, and extreme drought. Mortality data from 2007 to 2017 for the three areas were collected from the Sample Vital Registration System, which is a survey of 1 million people. The generalized linear model with Poisson regression link was used to identify associations between mortality and the drought severity and 1-month preceding SPI.
Only severe and extreme drought in the short-term drought periods affected mortality. Long-term drought was not associated with natural cause mortality in Rangpur and Nilphamari. In Dinajpur, mild and moderate drought was associated with circulatory- and respiratory-related mortality.
The impact of drought on mortality varied by region. This study improves our understanding of how droughts affect specific causes of mortality and will help policy makers to take appropriate measures against drought impacts on selected cause of mortality. Future research will be critical to reduce drought-related risks of health.
多年来，干旱一直是孟加拉国北部的一个重大问题。然而，该地区干旱对健康的影响尚未得到充分了解。
本研究分析了干旱持续时间和严重程度对孟加拉国北部特定死亡原因的影响。利用孟加拉国北部三个气象站（朗布尔、迪纳杰布尔和尼尔帕马里）的降雨数据评估干旱和非干旱时期，并使用标准化降水指数对轻度、中度、重度和极端干旱进行分类。从样本生命登记系统收集了2007年至2017年这三个地区的死亡率数据，该系统是一项针对100万人的调查。采用具有泊松回归链接的广义线性模型来确定死亡率与干旱严重程度以及前1个月的标准化降水指数之间的关联。
短期干旱期内只有严重和极端干旱影响死亡率。长期干旱与朗布尔和尼尔帕马里的自然原因死亡率无关。在迪纳杰布尔，轻度和中度干旱与循环系统和呼吸系统相关死亡率有关。
干旱对死亡率的影响因地区而异。本研究增进了我们对干旱如何影响特定死亡原因的理解，并将有助于政策制定者针对干旱对选定死亡原因的影响采取适当措施。未来的研究对于降低与干旱相关的健康风险至关重要。
