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考虑个体异质性的谣言传播过程建模：以 COVID-19 大流行期间的进口食品安全问题为例。

Modeling Rumor Diffusion Process With the Consideration of Individual Heterogeneity: Take the Imported Food Safety Issue as an Example During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

机构信息

School of Statistics and Mathematics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, China.

Academy of Zhejiang Culture Industry Innovation & Development, Hangzhou, China.

出版信息

Front Public Health. 2022 Mar 7;10:781691. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.781691. eCollection 2022.

DOI:10.3389/fpubh.2022.781691
PMID:35330754
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8940522/
Abstract

At present, rumors appear frequently in social platforms. The rumor diffusion will cause a great impact on the network order and the stability of the society. So it's necessary to study the diffusion process and develop the rumor control strategies. This article integrates three heterogeneous factors into the SEIR model and designs an individual state transition mode at first. Secondly, based on the influencing factors such as the trust degree among individuals, an individual information interaction mode is constructed. Finally, an improved SEIR model named SEIR-OM model is established, and the diffusion process of rumors are simulated and analyzed. The results show that: (1) when the average value of the interest correlation is greater, the information content deviation is lower, but the rumor diffusion range will be wider. (2) The increase of the average network degree intensifies influence of rumors, but its impact on the diffusion has a peak. (3) Adopting strategies in advance can effectively reduce the influence of rumors. In addition, the government should enforce rumor-refuting strategies right after the event. Also, the number of rumor-refuting individuals must be paid attention to. Finally, the article verifies the rationality and effectiveness of the SEIR-OM model through the real case.

摘要

目前，社交平台上经常出现谣言。谣言的传播会对网络秩序和社会稳定造成很大影响。因此，有必要研究谣言的传播过程并制定谣言控制策略。本文首先将三个异质因素整合到 SEIR 模型中，并设计了个体状态转移模式。其次，基于个体间信任度等影响因素，构建了个体信息交互模式。最后，建立了一个名为 SEIR-OM 的改进 SEIR 模型，并对谣言的传播过程进行了模拟和分析。结果表明：（1）当兴趣相关性的平均值较大时，信息内容偏差较低，但谣言的传播范围会更广。（2）平均网络度的增加加剧了谣言的影响，但对扩散的影响有一个峰值。（3）提前采取策略可以有效降低谣言的影响。此外，政府应在事件发生后立即采取辟谣策略。同时，还应注意辟谣个体的数量。最后，文章通过实际案例验证了 SEIR-OM 模型的合理性和有效性。

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