Cardona Pere-Joan, Català Martí, Prats Clara
Unitat de Tuberculosi Experimental, Germans Trias i Pujol Research Institute (IGTP), 08916 Badalona, Spain.
Microbiology Department, North Metropolitan Clinical Laboratory, 'Germans Trias i Pujol' University Hospital, 08916 Badalona, Spain.
Pathogens. 2022 Mar 17;11(3):366. doi: 10.3390/pathogens11030366.
Is it possible that the origin of (Mtb) infection was around 70,000 years before the common era? At that time was just another primate species with discrete growth and a very low-density geographic occupation. Therefore, it is difficult to understand the origin of a highly virulent obligate human pathogen. We have designed a new SEIR model (TBSpectr) that allows the differentiation of smear-positive and -negative tuberculosis. The model reconciles currently accepted growth rates for the Middle Paleolithic (0.003%/year) and Neolithic (0.1%/year). The obtained data link the origin of Mtb infection in the Middle Paleolithic to the induction of smear-negative TB, and reveal that its persistence required interrelations among hunter-gatherer groups, while the risk of human extinction was negligible. It also highlights the number of people infected per case and the fast progression to disease for Mtb infection maintenance, as well as the link between poor health in the Neolithic with the increased incidence of more severe forms of TB (smear-positive). In conclusion, our data support the origin of TB as a well-tolerated, highly persistent disease, even in low-density populations, showing the difficulty of its eradication and highlighting the necessity for providing better health conditions to humans to reduce its severity.
结核分枝杆菌（Mtb）感染的起源有可能在公元前7万年左右吗？那时，它只是另一种具有离散生长和极低密度地理分布的灵长类物种。因此，很难理解一种高毒力专性人类病原体的起源。我们设计了一种新的SEIR模型（TBSpectr），该模型能够区分涂片阳性和阴性结核病。该模型协调了目前公认的旧石器时代中期（每年0.003%）和新石器时代（每年0.1%）的增长率。获得的数据将旧石器时代中期Mtb感染的起源与涂片阴性结核病的诱发联系起来，并揭示其持续存在需要狩猎采集群体之间的相互关系，而人类灭绝的风险可以忽略不计。它还强调了每例感染的人数以及为维持Mtb感染疾病快速进展的情况，以及新石器时代健康状况不佳与更严重形式结核病（涂片阳性）发病率增加之间的联系。总之，我们的数据支持结核病起源于一种耐受性良好、高度持久的疾病，即使在低密度人群中也是如此，这表明根除该病存在困难，并突出了为人类提供更好健康条件以减轻其严重程度的必要性。
