Xing Qian, Sun ZhaoBin, Tao Yan, Shang Jing, Miao Shiguang, Xiao Chan, Zheng Canjun
Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China.
Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China; Joint International Research Laboratory of Atmospheric and Earth System Sciences, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
Environ Int. 2022 May;163:107231. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107231. Epub 2022 Apr 9.
Climate change is causing the surface temperature to rise and the extreme weather events to increase in frequency and intensity, which will pose potential threats to the survival and health of residents. Beijing is facing multiple challenges such as coping with climate change, urbanization, and population aging, which puts huge decision-making pressure on decision maker. However, few studies that systematically consider the health effects of climate change, urbanization, and population aging for China. Based on the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and 13 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study obtained the temporal and spatial distribution of surface temperature through statistical downscaling methods, and comprehensively explored the independent and comprehensive effects of urbanization and population aging on the projection of future temperature-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the context of climate and population change. The results showed that only improving urbanization can reduce future temperature-related CVD mortality by 1.7-18.3%, and only intensified aging can increase future temperature-related CVD mortality by 48.8-325.9%. Taking into account the improving urbanization and intensified aging, future temperature-related CVD mortality would increase by 44.1-256.6%, and the increase was slightly lower than that of only intensified aging. Therefore, the intensified aging was the biggest disadvantage in tackling climate change, which would obviously magnify the mortality risks of temperature-related CVD in the future. Although the advancement of urbanization would alleviate the adverse effects of the intensified aging population, the mitigation effects would be limited. Even so, Urbanization should be continued to reduce health risks for residents. These findings would contribute to formulate policies related to mitigate climate change and reduce baseline mortality rate (especially the elderly) in international mega-city - Beijing. In addition, relevant departments should improve the medical health care level and optimize the allocation of social resources to better cope with and adapt to climate change.
气候变化导致地表温度上升，极端天气事件的频率和强度增加，这将对居民的生存和健康构成潜在威胁。北京正面临应对气候变化、城市化和人口老龄化等多重挑战，这给决策者带来了巨大的决策压力。然而，很少有研究系统地考虑气候变化、城市化和人口老龄化对中国的健康影响。基于分布式滞后非线性模型（DLNM）和耦合模型比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6）中的13个全球气候模型，本研究通过统计降尺度方法获得了地表温度的时空分布，并在气候和人口变化的背景下，全面探讨了城市化和人口老龄化对未来与温度相关的心血管疾病（CVD）死亡率预测的独立和综合影响。结果表明，仅改善城市化可使未来与温度相关的CVD死亡率降低1.7%-18.3%，而仅老龄化加剧会使未来与温度相关的CVD死亡率增加48.8%-325.9%。考虑到城市化改善和老龄化加剧，未来与温度相关的CVD死亡率将增加44.1%-256.6%，且增幅略低于仅老龄化加剧的情况。因此，老龄化加剧是应对气候变化的最大不利因素，这将明显放大未来与温度相关的CVD的死亡风险。尽管城市化进程将缓解老龄化人口加剧带来的不利影响，但其缓解作用将是有限的。即便如此，仍应继续推进城市化以降低居民的健康风险。这些研究结果将有助于制定与缓解气候变化和降低国际大都市——北京的基线死亡率（尤其是老年人）相关的政策。此外，相关部门应提高医疗卫生保健水平，优化社会资源配置，以更好地应对和适应气候变化。
