Geography and Planning Department, Universidad de Cantabria, 39005, Santander, Spain.
Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain.
Int J Biometeorol. 2021 Aug;65(8):1325-1337. doi: 10.1007/s00484-021-02107-y. Epub 2021 Mar 23.
In this study, we use a statistical approach based on generalized additive models, linking atmospheric circulation and the number of influenza-related hospital admissions in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula during 2003-2013. The relative risks are estimated for administrative units in the Spanish territory, which is politically structured into 15 regions called autonomous communities. A catalog of atmospheric circulation types is defined for this purpose. The relationship between the exposure and response variables is modeled using a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Types from southwest and anticyclonic are significant in terms of the probability of having more influenza-related hospital admissions for all of Spain. The heterogeneity of the results is very high. The relative risk is also estimated for each autonomous community and weather type, with the maximum number of influenza-related hospital admissions associated with circulation types from the southwest and the south. We identify six specific situations where relative risk is considered extreme and twelve with a high risk of increasing influenza-related hospital admissions. The rest of the situations present a moderate risk. Atmospheric local conditions become a key factor for understanding influenza spread in each spatial unit of the Peninsula. Further research is needed to understand how different weather variables (temperature, humidity, and sun radiation) interact and promote the spread of influenza.
在这项研究中，我们使用了一种基于广义加性模型的统计方法，将大气环流与 2003-2013 年期间西班牙伊比利亚半岛与流感相关的住院人数联系起来。为了达到这个目的，我们定义了一个大气环流类型目录。使用分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 对暴露和响应变量之间的关系进行建模。来自西南和反气旋的类型在整个西班牙发生更多与流感相关的住院的概率方面具有统计学意义。结果的异质性非常高。还针对每个自治区和天气类型估计了相对风险，与来自西南和南部的环流类型相关的与流感相关的住院人数最多。我们确定了六个相对风险被认为是极端的特定情况，以及十二个与增加与流感相关的住院人数风险较高的情况。其余情况的风险适中。大气局部条件成为了解半岛每个空间单元流感传播的关键因素。需要进一步研究以了解不同的天气变量（温度、湿度和太阳辐射）如何相互作用并促进流感的传播。
