A-1 Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM87545, USA.
A-1 Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM87545, USA.
J Theor Biol. 2022 Jul 21;545:111145. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111145. Epub 2022 Apr 29.
The many respiratory viruses that cause influenza-like illness (ILI) are reported and tracked as one entity, defined by the CDC as a group of symptoms that include a fever of 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a cough, and/or a sore throat. In the United States alone, ILI impacts 9-49 million people every year. While tracking ILI as a single clinical syndrome is informative in many respects, the underlying viruses differ in parameters and outbreak properties. Most existing models treat either a single respiratory virus or ILI as a whole. However, there is a need for models capable of comparing several individual viruses that cause respiratory illness, including ILI. To address this need, here we present a flexible model and simulations of epidemics for influenza, RSV, rhinovirus, seasonal coronavirus, adenovirus, and SARS/MERS, parameterized by a systematic literature review and accompanied by a global sensitivity analysis. We find that for these biological causes of ILI, their parameter values, timing, prevalence, and proportional contributions differ substantially. These results demonstrate that distinguishing the viruses that cause ILI will be an important aspect of future work on diagnostics, mitigation, modeling, and preparation for future pandemics.
引起流感样疾病（ILI）的多种呼吸道病毒被报告和追踪为一个实体，由疾病预防控制中心定义为一组症状，包括体温 100 华氏度、咳嗽和/或喉咙痛。仅在美国，每年就有 900 万至 4900 万人受到 ILI 的影响。虽然将 ILI 作为单一临床综合征进行跟踪在许多方面都是有信息价值的，但潜在的病毒在参数和爆发特性上有所不同。大多数现有模型要么只针对单一的呼吸道病毒，要么只针对 ILI 进行整体处理。然而，需要能够比较引起呼吸道疾病（包括 ILI）的几种个别病毒的模型。为了满足这一需求，我们在这里提出了一个灵活的模型和流感、RSV、鼻病毒、季节性冠状病毒、腺病毒和 SARS/MERS 的流行模拟，这些模型通过系统文献综述进行参数化，并附有全局敏感性分析。我们发现，对于这些引起 ILI 的生物原因，它们的参数值、时间、流行率和比例贡献有很大差异。这些结果表明，区分引起 ILI 的病毒将是未来在诊断、缓解、建模和为未来的大流行做准备方面工作的一个重要方面。
