Childhood Tuberculosis in Mongolia: Trends and Estimates, 2010-2030.

Mongolia was listed among the 30 countries with a high tuberculosis burden in 2021. Approximately 10-11% of the tuberculosis cases are of children, which is higher than the global average (6.0%). As children are a vulnerable population, it is important to understand the current situation and prioritize the development of tuberculosis prevention strategies. However, only few studies have addressed childhood tuberculosis in Mongolia. Therefore, we aimed to describe the characteristics of childhood tuberculosis and to show its trends and estimates in Mongolia. We performed descriptive and trend analyses on secondary data from the National Center for Communicable Diseases from 2010 to 2020. A total of 4,242 childhood tuberculosis cases, compiled from nine districts of the capital city and 21 provinces, were analyzed. We found that tuberculosis occurred more frequently in school-age children, and 71.8% of the all cases were an extrapulmonary tuberculosis. Trend analysis revealed that childhood tuberculosis continuously increased with fluctuations from 2018 onwards. The central region, including the capital city of Ulaanbaatar, is the most tuberculosis-burdened. Childhood tuberculosis is estimated to increase in the central region and decrease in the others from 2021 to 2030. Our findings showed that the national childhood tuberculosis trend is increasing, although there are differences in the pattern between regions. Further studies are needed to identify the determinant factors of regional differences, and age-specific public health interventions, such as scale-up screening and preventive treatment, are in demand in high-prevalence areas.