Siyu Yu, Shihong Li, Hanzhao Liu, Qiufang Xu, Jingyi Liu, Fengzhu Cai, Shaotan Xiao, Gengsheng He
School of Public Health/Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Department of Nutrition and Food Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China.
Shanghai Pudong New Area Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fudan University Pudong Institute of Preventive Medicine, Shanghai, 200136, China.
Arch Public Health. 2023 Aug 8;81(1):143. doi: 10.1186/s13690-023-01160-w.
Previous studies have shown that the risk of tuberculosis (TB) increases dramatically during adolescence. The objective of this article was to analyze the burdens and trends of TB incidence and mortality rates in Asian adolescents and young adults.
Time series ecological study of TB incidence and mortality rates of adolescents and young adults aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2019, using data extracted from the Global Burden of Disease website for 5 Asian countries. The annual percentage change was calculated by joinpoint regression analysis to estimate the trends in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR).
The highest ASIR per 100,000 person-years in 2019 was in Mongolia [74 (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 51 to 105)], while the lowest was in Japan [4 (95% UI, 2 to 6)]. The highest ASDR per 100,000 person-years was in Mongolia [2 (95% UI, 1 to 3)], while the lowest was in Japan [0.009 (95% UI, 0.008 to 0.010)]. As the absolute number of cases and deaths decreased from 1990 to 2019, the ASIRs and ASDRs in all five countries also decreased.
Our finding revealed that although all five countries in Asia experienced descending TB incidence and mortality trend in past three decades, the trends were especially significant in developed countries and varied across geographic regions. This study may be crucial in helping policymakers make decisions and allocate appropriate resources to adolescent TB control strategies.
先前的研究表明，结核病（TB）风险在青春期会急剧增加。本文的目的是分析亚洲青少年和青年中结核病发病率和死亡率的负担及趋势。
对1990年至2019年10至24岁青少年和青年的结核病发病率和死亡率进行时间序列生态研究，使用从全球疾病负担网站提取的5个亚洲国家的数据。通过连接点回归分析计算年度百分比变化，以估计年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）的趋势。
2019年每10万人年中ASIR最高的是蒙古[74（95%不确定区间（UI），51至105）]，而最低的是日本[4（95%UI，2至6）]。每10万人年中ASDR最高的是蒙古[2（95%UI，1至3）]，而最低的是日本[0.009（95%UI，0.008至0.010）]。从1990年到2019年，病例和死亡的绝对数量减少，所有五个国家的ASIR和ASDR也有所下降。
我们的研究结果显示，尽管亚洲的这五个国家在过去三十年中结核病发病率和死亡率均呈下降趋势，但在发达国家这种趋势尤为显著，且各地理区域有所不同。本研究对于帮助政策制定者做出决策以及为青少年结核病控制策略分配适当资源可能至关重要。
