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对210个国家在15年(2001年至2015年)间与灾害、流行病和大流行病相关的全球死亡率进行的系统分析。

A systematic analysis of worldwide disasters, epidemics and pandemics associated mortality of 210 countries for 15 years (2001-2015).

作者信息

Ahmad Junaid, Ahmad Mokbul Morshed, Su Zhaohui, Rana Irfan Ahmad, Rehman Asif, Sadia Haleema

机构信息

Prime Institute of Public Health, Peshawar Medical College, Pakistan.

Rufaidah Nursing College, Kuwait Teaching Hospital, Peshawar, Pakistan.

出版信息

Int J Disaster Risk Reduct. 2022 Jun 15;76:103001. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103001. Epub 2022 May 4.

DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103001
PMID:35528261
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9067020/
Abstract

In recent years, the unprecedented death tolls resulting from epidemics and natural disasters made everyone interested, from the general public to country heads, to know about the mortality rates. The coronavirus issue is the most recent example all over the media, and everyone is talking about corona-induced mortality. The study aimed to estimate the disaster-induced mortality rates at the global level for two hundred and ten countries for fifteen years (2001-2015). Using a retrospective study design, we extracted datasets from two data sources, EM-DAT and UNFPA, in October 2019. The cut-off time for the data download was midnight Central European Time, October 17, 2019. The most noticeable finding in this study is that, against the common prevailing notion, both developed and developing countries equally carry the brunt of disaster-induced mortality. This study proposes empirical confirmation of the direction and magnitude of any year-over-year correlation of disaster and mortality rates. Furthermore, the analysis of the trend in mortality rate over the past fifteen years concludes it is not linear. However, there are huge variations across the years and the countries. The study is of paramount importance to initiate a debate amongst the concerned policymakers and stakeholders to regularly monitor the disaster-induced mortality rates. So that effective interventions can be devised to decrease the mortality rates.

摘要

近年来,由流行病和自然灾害导致的前所未有的死亡人数让从普通大众到国家首脑的每个人都对死亡率产生了兴趣。冠状病毒问题是媒体上最新的例子,每个人都在谈论新冠病毒导致的死亡率。该研究旨在估计2001年至2015年这十五年间全球210个国家的灾害导致的死亡率。采用回顾性研究设计,我们于2019年10月从两个数据源(EM-DAT和联合国人口基金)提取了数据集。数据下载的截止时间是中欧时间2019年10月17日午夜。这项研究中最值得注意的发现是,与普遍流行的观念相反,发达国家和发展中国家同样首当其冲地承受着灾害导致的死亡。这项研究提出了对灾害与死亡率的逐年相关性的方向和程度的实证确认。此外,对过去十五年死亡率趋势的分析得出结论,其并非呈线性。然而,不同年份和国家之间存在巨大差异。这项研究对于引发相关政策制定者和利益相关者之间的辩论至关重要,以便定期监测灾害导致的死亡率。从而能够制定有效的干预措施来降低死亡率。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b698/9067020/ee4c066749a9/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b698/9067020/c3535d598712/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b698/9067020/9f50a8dbf400/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b698/9067020/233f9c87183f/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b698/9067020/ee4c066749a9/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b698/9067020/c3535d598712/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b698/9067020/9f50a8dbf400/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b698/9067020/233f9c87183f/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b698/9067020/ee4c066749a9/gr4_lrg.jpg

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