A Nomogram-based Model to Predict Neoplastic Risk for Patients with Gallbladder Polyps.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Gallbladder polyp (GBP) assessment aims to identify the early stages of gallbladder carcinoma. Many studies have analyzed the risk factors for malignant GBPs. In this retrospective study, we aimed to establish a more accurate predictive model for potential neoplastic polyps in patients with GBPs.

METHODS

We developed a nomogram-based model in a training cohort of 233 GBP patients. Clinical information, ultrasonographic findings, and blood test findings were analyzed. Mann-Whitney U test and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent predictors and establish the nomogram model. An internal validation was conducted in 225 consecutive patients. Performance and clinical benefit of the model were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively.

RESULTS

Age, cholelithiasis, carcinoembryonic antigen, polyp size, and sessile shape were confirmed as independent predictors of GBP neoplastic potential in the training group. Compared with five other proposed prediction methods, the established nomogram model presented better discrimination of neoplastic GBPs in the training cohort (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.846) and the validation cohort (AUC: 0.835). DCA demonstrated that the greatest clinical benefit was provided by the nomogram compared with the other five methods.

CONCLUSIONS

Our developed preoperative nomogram model can successfully be used to evaluate the neoplastic potential of GBPs based on simple clinical variables that maybe useful for clinical decision-making.