Tanaka Katsumasa, Azar Christian, Boucher Olivier, Ciais Philippe, Gaucher Yann, Johansson Daniel J A
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Earth System Risk Analysis Section, Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan.
Clim Change. 2022;172(1-2):1. doi: 10.1007/s10584-022-03355-6. Epub 2022 May 2.
It has been claimed that COVID-19 public stimulus packages could be sufficient to meet the short-term energy investment needs to leverage a shift toward a pathway consistent with the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement. Here, we provide complementary perspectives to reiterate that substantial, broad, and sustained policy efforts beyond stimulus packages will be needed for achieving the Paris Agreement long-term targets. Low-carbon investments will need to scale up and persist over the next several decades following short-term stimulus packages. The required total energy investments in the real world can be larger than the currently available estimates from integrated assessment models (IAMs). Existing databases from IAMs are not sufficient for analyzing the effect of public spending on emission reduction. To inform what role COVID-19 stimulus packages and public investments may play for reaching the Paris Agreement targets, explicit modelling of such policies is required.
有人声称，新冠疫情期间的公共刺激计划足以满足短期能源投资需求，从而推动向符合《巴黎协定》1.5°C目标的路径转变。在此，我们提供补充观点，重申要实现《巴黎协定》的长期目标，除了刺激计划之外，还需要大量、广泛和持续的政策努力。在短期刺激计划之后的未来几十年里，低碳投资需要扩大规模并持续进行。现实世界中所需的能源总投资可能大于综合评估模型（IAMs）目前给出的估计值。IAMs现有的数据库不足以分析公共支出对减排的影响。为了明确新冠疫情刺激计划和公共投资在实现《巴黎协定》目标中可能发挥的作用，需要对此类政策进行明确建模。
